Methodology

What the model does

The Rivals Rundown model evaluates every FBS team, applies game-level schedule context and converts matchup probabilities into expected regular-season wins.

Public inputs

• Team power, offense, defense and special teams
• Returning starters and roster continuity
• Quarterback experience and coaching stability
• Transfer portal activity
• Venue, travel, rest and road sequencing

How to read the site

Projected wins are model expectations, not guarantees. Market difference compares the model with the posted preseason total. Fragility describes uncertainty around the roster and projection.