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2026 FBS Preseason. National Model V5.138 teams. 1,657 scheduled games projected. Updated Aug 9, 2026.
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College Football Analytics

College Football. Decoded.

Who’s good. Who has the path. What happens next.
Rivals Rundown brings national RPR rankings, projected wins, every FBS schedule, game-by-game score projections, win probabilities, weekly outlooks, Game Lab and model-vs-market analysis together in one place.

Power RankingsSchedules & Projected WinsScores & Win Probabilities
Find Your TeamNational Rankings
Weekly ProjectionsGame LabMarket Edges
138FBS teams
1,657game projections
RPRnational power ranking
Score + Win %every scheduled game

Schedule-adjusted outlook

Top Projected Wins

View all 138 →
Top projected wins
Projected-Wins RankTeamConferenceRPR RankProjected WinsMarket TotalAdjusted EdgeSignal
1Notre DameFighting IrishIndependent#3RPR +26.810.8911.5-0.29No Edge
2Texas TechRed RaidersBig 12#7RPR +22.510.7010.5-0.18No Edge
3Ohio StateBuckeyesBig Ten#1RPR +32.810.379.5+0.60Lean
4OregonDucksBig Ten#2RPR +29.210.3110.5-0.13No Edge
5IndianaHoosiersBig Ten#5RPR +25.810.1110.5-0.29No Edge
6GeorgiaBulldogsSEC#4RPR +26.510.019.5+0.15No Edge
7Miami (FL)HurricanesACC#8RPR +21.910.0010.5-0.50Lean
8Penn StateNittany LionsBig Ten#17RPR +16.19.188.5+0.35Lean
9BYUCougarsBig 12#14RPR +16.89.118.5+0.44Lean
10LSUTigersSEC#9RPR +21.48.978.5+0.43Lean

Rundown Power Rating · RPR

How strong is your team?

RPR is Rivals Rundown’s neutral-field measure of underlying team quality. It answers a different question than projected wins, revealing when a team’s record outlook is being lifted—or limited—by its schedule.

Compare all 138 RPR and projected-win ranks →
RPRTeam strength
Underlying Team Strength

Measures overall team strength independent of schedule.

Pure team strength
Apply the schedule

Opponent strength. Venue. Timing. Context.

Projected WinsSeason outlook
How many games should it win?

Translates team strength through the actual schedule into an expected win total.

Strength + schedule difficulty

Why both matter: a team can rank highly in RPR but have fewer projected wins because of a difficult schedule—or rank lower in RPR and still project well because the path is easier.

RPR #1

Ohio State

+32.8Projected-wins rank #3RPR #2

Oregon

+29.2Projected-wins rank #4RPR #3

Notre Dame

+26.8Projected-wins rank #1
RPR RankTeamConferenceRPRProjected-Wins RankProjected Wins
1Ohio StateBig Ten+32.8#310.37
2OregonBig Ten+29.2#410.31
3Notre DameIndependent+26.8#110.89
4GeorgiaSEC+26.5#610.01
5IndianaBig Ten+25.8#510.11
6TexasSEC+24.6#138.77
7Texas TechBig 12+22.5#210.70
8Miami (FL)ACC+21.9#710.00
9LSUSEC+21.4#108.97
10Texas A&MSEC+20.9#188.44
11USCBig Ten+17.9#267.92
12AlabamaSEC+17.9#218.11
13OklahomaSEC+17.8#417.51
14BYUBig 12+16.8#99.11
15MichiganBig Ten+16.7#377.60
16Ole MissSEC+16.7#507.14
17Penn StateBig Ten+16.1#89.18
18TennesseeSEC+15.8#467.32
19WashingtonBig Ten+15.2#287.90
20FloridaSEC+14.8#547.09
21MissouriSEC+14.3#527.13
22IowaBig Ten+12.9#337.81
23ClemsonACC+12.8#317.82
24South CarolinaSEC+12.4#656.67
25AuburnSEC+12.0#646.71

Model vs. market

Strongest Model-Market Edges

Ranked by adjusted edge relative to projection uncertainty. These are model signals, not wagering recommendations.

Model over marketTop 10
  1. Miami (OH)MAC+1.21
  2. UNLVMountain West+0.94
  3. Ohio StateBig Ten+0.60
  4. TulsaAmerican+0.81
  5. Georgia SouthernSun Belt+0.84
  6. TroySun Belt+0.76
  7. Virginia TechACC+0.75
  8. Kennesaw StateConference USA+0.75
  9. DukeACC+0.74
  10. Bowling GreenMAC+0.66
Model under marketTop 10
  1. CharlotteAmerican-1.58
  2. Georgia StateSun Belt-1.61
  3. Middle TennesseeConference USA-1.49
  4. Southern MissSun Belt-1.24
  5. UL MonroeSun Belt-1.19
  6. Sam HoustonConference USA-1.07
  7. Texas StatePac-12-1.25
  8. WisconsinBig Ten-1.14
  9. West VirginiaBig 12-1.06
  10. AkronMAC-0.89

Conference rundown

Explore every league

All conferences →
17 teams

ACC

RPR leader: Miami (FL)

14 teams

American

RPR leader: Navy

16 teams

Big 12

RPR leader: Texas Tech

18 teams

Big Ten

RPR leader: Ohio State

10 teams

Conference USA

RPR leader: Western Kentucky

2 teams

Independent

RPR leader: Notre Dame

13 teams

MAC

RPR leader: Miami (OH)

10 teams

Mountain West

RPR leader: UNLV

8 teams

Pac-12

RPR leader: Boise State

Flex schedule16 teams

SEC

RPR leader: Georgia

14 teams

Sun Belt

RPR leader: James Madison

Transparent by design

How the model works

1

Rate every team

RPR combines efficiency, roster continuity, quarterback experience, coaching stability and portal activity into neutral-field strength.

2

Analyze every game

Opponent strength, venue, travel, rest, road sequencing and matchup interactions create game-level margins.

3

Project the season

Simulations create expected wins and record distributions; a calibrated uncertainty layer translates game projections into win probability.

Read the methodologyExplore team schedules