Predicting the College Football Playoff Top 10

After another great weekend of College Football, we sit trying to predicted what the College Football Playoff Committee will do.  We’ve now seen the movement with the polls but if there is one thing that the committee has proven, it’s that they are independent.  They have been looking at the “body of work” and eye test of these teams and carrying less weight on where the teams were ranked in the preseason.The tough part comes when we get to the grouping of Oregon, Arizona State, TCU, Baylor, Ohio State. A case could be made after the wins that Arizona State, TCU, and Ohio State posted this last weekend that all could be moved ahead of Oregon. It would be an accurate reflection of how each week these teams should be re-ranked based on what happens across the board in college football. Based on common opponents, Arizona State has had more impressive wins and dominated Notre Dame but they have a loss, where Florida State doesn’t. The question is, “Is a bad loss to a top team better then a win vs a bad team”, that’s where this committee could make a difference. If we took strength of schedule for 1 loss teams vs Florida State’s schedule, we could move them to 9th! Which is crazy to think about but it’s the truth and right now, they don’t look as good as the teams in that top 8. What appears to matter most in the rankings every week is who you beat, with that, TCU and Arizona State should move ahead of Alabama.

Now, I want to say, in no way do I think that these teams are better then Alabama but for this week they should be ranked higher. If Alabama beats Mississippi State, they will move two the #2 team next week. So for week 12 of the college football season, this is what we think the top 10 should be:

1.  Mississippi State

2.  Florida State

3.  TCU

4.  Oregon

5.  Arizona State

6.  Alabama

7.  Ohio State

8.  Baylor

9.  Auburn

10.  Ole Miss

Mississippi State overtakes Florida State in coaches poll

(Via CBS Sports)

By Tom Fornelli / College Football Writer

October 12, 2014 01:13 PM ET

Dak Prescott and the Bulldogs find themselves atop the Coaches Poll
Dak Prescott and the Bulldogs find themselves atop the coaches poll.

Mississippi State is the best college football team in the country.

That’s what the voters of the coaches poll say, anyway. Voters were impressed enough by the Bulldogs’ 38-23 over Auburn on Saturday that they voted them into first place over Florida State, who had a relatively easy time with Syracuse. What’s strange, though, is that Florida State actually received more first-place votes (31-26 than the Bulldogs), and odds are this is due to some voters putting Ole Miss ahead of the Seminoles as well.

It’s hard to blame voters for feeling that way, as Mississippi State now has wins over LSU, Texas A&M and Auburn on its resume, while Ole Miss has beaten Alabama and A&M as well.

Speaking of Texas A&M, the Aggies experience the biggest drop of any team in the coaches poll, falling from No. 14 to No. 21.

Here’s the entire coaches poll. See complete details here.

1. Mississippi State (26 first place votes)

2. Florida State (31)

3. Ole Miss (5)

4. Baylor

5. Notre Dame

6. Michigan State

7. Alabama

8. Auburn

9. Oregon

10. Georgia

11. Oklahoma

12. TCU

13. Ohio State

14. Kansas State

15. Oklahoma State

16. East Carolina

17. Arizona

18. Arizona State

19. Nebraska

20. Stanford

21. Texas A&M

22. Clemson

23. Utah

24. Marshall

25. USC

Dropping out: UCLA, Georgia Tech,

Week 7 College Football Picks: Last Minute, Best Guess… Ready, Set, Go!!!

It’s late so I’m not going to mess around and give you a bunch of reasons why I think these are the picks you should take to the bank.  Instead, bet at your own risk…  Welcome to the Week 7 Rundown ATS style! (Odds via VegasInsider.com)

10/11 12:00 PM

111 Texas

112 Oklahoma

 

48½u-10

-14½ -10

 

47u-10

-16½ -10

 

47½u-10

-16 -10

 

46½u-10

-16 -10

 

47u-10

-16½ -10

 

46½u-10

-16½ -10

Bet Oklahoma, no matter what the spread, OK Covers.

10/11 3:30 PM

113 Michigan State

114 Purdue

 

-21½ -10

54½u-10

 

-21 -10

51u-10

 

-21 -10

51½u-10

 

-20½ -10

51½u-10

 

-21 -10

51u-10

 

-21 -10

50½u-10

Purdue is terrible, Michigan St. Covers.

10/11 12:00 PM

115 Northwestern

116 Minnesota

 

41½u-10

PK -10

 

44u-10

-3½ -10

 

44u-10

-3½ -10

 

43½u-10

-4 -10

 

44u-10

-3½ -10

 

44u-10

-4 -10

We like Northwestern with the points.

10/11 12:00 PM

117 Rice

118 Army

 

60½u-10

-2 -10

 

-1 -10

59½u-10

 

-1 -10

60u-10

 

-1 -10

XX

 

60u-10

PK -10

 

-1 -10

60½u-10

Coin Toss: Rice

10/11 12:00 PM

119 Tulsa

120 Temple

 

58u-10

-12½ -10

 

58½u-10

-17 -10

 

58½u-10

-17½ -10

 

58½u-10

-17 -10

 

58½u-10

-17 -10

 

59u-10

-17 -10

Tulsa gets enough for us to take it.

10/11 12:00 PM

121 Middle Tennessee St.

122 Marshall

 

73½u-10

-22 -10

 

70u-10

-24 -10

 

69½u-10

-24 -10

 

69u-10

-24 -10

 

70u-10

-24 -10

 

 

-24 -10

We are Marshall.

10/11 2:00 PM

123 Massachusetts

124 Kent State

 

 

-1 -10

 

 

-1½ -10

 

 

-1½ -10

 

 

 

 

 

-1½ -10

 

 

-2 -10

Kent State Covers.

10/11 12:00 PM

125 Florida State

126 Syracuse

 

-20 -10

51u-10

 

-24 -10

53½u-10

 

-23½ -10

53½u-10

 

XX

XX

 

-24 -10

53½u-10

 

-24 -10

53½u-10

Syracuse maybe a 1st half bet but Florida State pulls the spread by the end.

10/11 12:30 PM

127 Duke

128 Georgia Tech

 

56½u-10

-5 -10

 

61½u-10

-3½ -10

 

61½u-10

-3½ -10

 

61u-10

-3½ EV

 

61½u-10

-3½ -10

 

60½u-10

-3½ -10

Duke…  Georgia Tech has become so mainstream.

10/11 12:00 PM

129 Illinois

130 Wisconsin

 

55½u-10

-23 -10

 

57½u-10

-26½ -10

 

58½u-10

-26 -10

 

57½u-10

-27 -10

 

58u-10

-26½ -10

 

57½u-10

-26½ -10

On Wisconsin, is that still a thing?  We think so.

10/11 3:30 PM

131 Boston College

132 North Carolina State

 

56½u-10

-6 -10

 

55½u-10

-3 -10

 

55½u-10

-3 -10

 

55½u-10

-3 -10

 

55u-10

-3 -10

 

55½u-10

-3½ -10

NC State by a touchdown.

10/11 12:00 PM

133 Cincinnati

134 Miami (FL)

 

60u-10

-11 -10

 

58u-10

-17 -10

 

56½u-10

-16½ -10

 

58u-10

-16½ -10

 

58u-10

-16½ -10

 

57½u-10

-17 -10

Cincinnati with the points.

10/11 1:00 PM

135 SUNY-Buffalo

136 Eastern Michigan

 

-11 -10

60½u-10

 

-14½ -10

58u-10

 

-14 -10

58u-10

 

-14½ -10

58u-10

 

-14½ -10

58u-10

 

-14½ -10

 

Buffalo covers…urgh will people watch this game?

10/11 2:00 PM

137 Miami (OH)

138 Akron

 

47½u-10

-15 -10

 

55u-10

-14½ -10

 

55u-10

-14½ -10

 

54½u-10

-14 -10

 

55½u-10

-14 -10

 

 

-14 -10

Zips

10/11 12:00 PM

139 Indiana

140 Iowa

 

53½u-10

-7 -10

 

53½u-10

-3½ -10

 

54½u-10

-3½ -10

 

53½u-10

-3½ -10

 

54u-10

-3½ -10

 

53½u-10

-3½ -10

Upset again for Indiana?  Sure why not.

10/11 2:00 PM

141 Bowling Green State

142 Ohio

 

63u-10

-3.25 -10

 

-1 -10

66u-10

 

-1 -10

66u-10

 

-1 -10

65u-10

 

-1 -10

67u-10

 

 

PK -10

Bowling Green wins by 3.

10/11 12:00 PM

143 West Virginia

144 Texas Tech

 

-3 -10

72u-10

 

-6 -10

78u-10

 

-6 -10

78u-10

 

-6 -10

78u-10

 

-6 -10

76½u-10

 

-6 -10

78u-10

West Virginia trying to prove they are legit, cover.

10/11 4:00 PM

145 Oklahoma State

146 Kansas

 

-21 -10

53½u-10

 

-21 -10

48½u-10

 

-21 -10

49u-10

 

-20 -10

47½u-10

 

-20½ -10

47½u-10

 

-21 -10

48u-10

We’d take Ok State by four touchdowns if we could.

10/11 3:30 PM

147 Texas Christian

148 Baylor

 

62½u-10

-10 -10

 

64u-10

-8 -10

 

65u-10

-8 -10

 

65u-10

-7½ -10

 

65u-10

-7½ -10

 

65u-10

-8½ -10

TCU can not play back to back the way they did, Baylor wins but bet TCU with points.

10/11 7:00 PM

149 Houston

150 Memphis

 

49u-10

-4 -10

 

48u-10

-7½ -10

 

48½u-10

-8 -10

 

49u-10

-7½ -10

 

48½u-10

-7½ -10

 

48u-10

-8 -10

Memphis is for real, bet Memphis to cover.

10/11 3:30 PM

151 North Texas

152 UAB

 

64u-10

-3 -10

 

58½u-10

-6½ -10

 

59u-10

-6½ -10

 

58u-10

-6½ -10

 

59u-10

-6½ -10

 

 

-6½ -10

We like the points with North Texas.

10/11 3:30 PM

153 Auburn

154 Mississippi State

 

-3 -10

59½u-10

 

-2½ -10

63½u-10

 

-2½ -10

64u-10

 

-3 EV

63u-10

 

-2½ -10

64u-10

 

-3 EV

64u-10

Auburn being the favorite is just calling for bets on Mississippi State, bets HailState at Home.

10/11 3:00 PM

155 Western Michigan

156 Ball State

 

53u-10

-1 -10

 

55u-10

-2 -10

 

54½u-10

-1½ -10

 

55u-10

-1½ -10

 

55u-10

-2 -10

 

 

-2½ -10

Hail State, Ball State, Just bet State.

10/11 3:00 PM

157 New Mexico State

158 Troy

 

63½u-10

-6 -10

 

63u-10

-7 -10

 

63u-10

-7 -10

 

62½u-10

-7 -10

 

62½u-10

-7 -10

 

 

-7 -10

Troy, move on.

10/11 6:00 PM

159 Alabama

160 Arkansas

 

-8 -10

58½u-10

 

-9 -10

56u-10

 

-9 -10

56u-10

 

-9½ -10

56u-10

 

-9 -10

56½u-10

 

-9 -10

56u-10

Alabama covers, Arkansas first half at home.

10/11 7:30 PM

161 LSU

162 Florida

 

-1 -10

46½u-10

 

47u-10

-1 -10

 

47u-10

-1 -10

 

47½u-10

-1 -10

 

47u-10

-1 -10

 

47u-10

PK -10

Florida.

10/11 3:30 PM

163 Toledo

164 Iowa State

 

63u-10

-5 -10

 

62u-10

-3 -10

 

61½u-10

-3 -10

 

61u-10

-3 -10

 

62u-10

-3 -10

 

 

-3 -10

Iowa State.

10/11 3:30 PM

165 Oregon

166 UCLA

 

-3 -10

68u-10

 

-2½ -10

71u-10

 

-2 -10

71u-10

 

-2½ -10

71u-10

 

-2½ -10

71u-10

 

-2½ -10

71½u-10

Pumped for this game, this is elimination football, Quack, Quack, Ducks.

10/11 10:30 PM

167 Southern Cal

168 Arizona

 

-3 -10

63u-10

 

-2½ -15

66½u-10

 

-3 -10

66½u-10

 

-2½ -20

66½u-10

 

-2½ -10

67u-10

 

-3 -05

67u-10

USC wants revenge against Arizona St, this is as close as they can get, USC Covers.

10/11 6:00 PM

169 Washington

170 California

 

-2.7 -10

75½u-10

 

70u-10

-4 -10

 

70u-10

-4 -10

 

70u-10

-4 -10

 

69½u-10

-4 -10

 

69½u-10

-4 -10

California, Raid Bear, Raid Bear…(we hate this pick), in fact bet Washington!!!

10/11 12:00 PM

171 Georgia

172 Missouri

 

-3 -10

62u-10

 

-2 -10

59½u-10

 

-2 -10

59u-10

 

-2½ -10

58½u-10

 

-2½ -10

60u-10

 

-3 EV

59½u-10

Missouri at home, Georgia’s defense will be ready.  Missouri with points.

10/11 3:30 PM

173 Louisville

174 Clemson

 

48o-21

-10 -10

 

48u-10

-9½ -10

 

48u-10

-9½ -10

 

48u-10

-9½ -10

 

48u-10

-9½ -10

 

49u-10

-9½ -10

Upset, Louisville. Why?  Who cares Why, just bet Louisville one way or another.

10/11 3:30 PM

175 North Carolina

176 Notre Dame

 

61u-10

-17 -10

 

64u-10

-16½ -10

 

64u-10

-17 -10

 

65u-10

-17 -05

 

64u-10

-16½ -10

 

64u-10

-17 -10

Feeling that this spread is a bit high, so Notre Dame will cover anyways.

10/11 5:00 PM

177 Central Michigan

178 Northern Illinois

 

52½u-10

-11 -10

 

57u-10

-9½ -10

 

56½u-10

-9½ -10

 

56½u-10

-9 -10

 

57u-10

-9 -10

 

 

-9 -10

Northern Illinois, no one is talking about them but bet’em.

10/11 6:00 PM

179 Idaho

180 Georgia Southern

 

64u-10

-20 -10

 

65u-10

-24½ -10

 

66u-10

-24 -10

 

66u-10

-24½ -10

 

65u-10

-24½ -10

 

 

-24 -10

Blah Blah Blah Georgia Southern covers, is this really D1?

10/11 2:00 PM

181 Arkansas State

182 Georgia State

 

-13 -10

59½u-10

 

-10½ -10

65u-10

 

-10½ -10

66u-10

 

-10½ -10

65½u-10

 

-10½ -10

65u-10

 

-10 -10

 

Arkansas State covers.

10/11 7:00 PM

183 Florida Intl

184 Texas-San Antonio

 

45u-10

-14 -10

 

40u-10

-9½ -10

 

40u-10

-9½ -10

 

40½u-10

-10 EV

 

40½u-10

-9½ -10

 

 

-9½ -10

U…T…S…A…UTSA Rah Rah Rah!!!

10/11 12:00 PM

185 Louisiana-Monroe

186 Kentucky

 

47½u-10

-21 -10

 

49u-10

-21½ -10

 

49u-10

-21½ -10

 

49u-10

-21½ -10

 

49u-10

-21 -10

 

 

-21½ -10

Louisiana Monroe with points.

10/11 9:15 PM

187 Mississippi

188 Texas AM

 

60u-10

-1 -10

 

65½u-10

-2½ -10

 

65u-10

-2 -10

 

66u-10

-2½ -10

 

65½u-10

-2 -10

 

65u-10

-2½ -10

Wow, we think there might be something special with Ole Miss, take the money line, Upset.

10/11 10:15 PM

189 Air Force

190 Utah State

 

49u-10

-7 -10

 

50u-10

-7½ -10

 

50u-10

-8 -10

 

49½u-10

-7½ -10

 

49u-10

-7½ -10

 

49½u-10

-7½ -10

Utah State needs a bounce back game, bounce!

10/11 7:00 PM

191 East Carolina

192 South Florida

 

-14 -10

58u-10

 

-17 -10

57u-10

 

-17 -10

57u-10

 

-17 -10

57u-10

 

-17 -10

57½u-10

 

-17 -10

57½u-10

East Carolina does not cover.

10/11 7:00 PM

193 Penn State

194 Michigan

 

-2 -10

41u-10

 

41½u-10

-1 -10

 

41½u-10

-1 -10

 

41u-10

 

 

41½u-10

-1½ -10

 

41½u-10

-1½ -10

Penn State, Michigan sucks. (Someone gets Fired)

10/11 8:00 PM

195 Old Dominion

196 UTEP

 

68½u-10

-1 -10

 

66u-10

-3 -05

 

67u-10

-2½ -10

 

65½u-10

-3 EV

 

66u-10

-3 -10

 

 

-3 -10

Old Dominion for the Win.

10/11 8:00 PM

197 Connecticut

198 Tulane

 

47u-10

-2 -10

 

42u-10

-3½ -10

 

40½u-10

-3½ -10

 

41u-10

-3½ -10

 

42u-10

-3½ -10

 

 

-3½ -10

UConn with points.

10/11 10:30 PM

199 Colorado State

200 Nevada

 

-1 -10

57½u-10

 

-2½ -10

64½u-10

 

-2½ -10

64½u-10

 

-3 EV

64½u-10

 

-2½ -10

64u-10

 

-2½ -10

64u-10

Nevada has great value as home dog.

10/11 12:00 AM

201 Wyoming

202 Hawaii

 

48½u-10

-3 -10

 

43½u-10

-6 -10

 

43½u-10

-6 -10

 

44u-10

-6 -10

 

43½u-10

-5½ -10

 

43½u-10

-5½ -10

Hawaii has looked great at home.

Odds Via Vegas Insider)OK, so there we have it! Good luck with these completely fact-less bets, let’s see how this weekend stacks up to week 6, our guess is a lot more favorites are covering this one