Predicting the College Football Playoff Top 10

After another great weekend of College Football, we sit trying to predicted what the College Football Playoff Committee will do.  We’ve now seen the movement with the polls but if there is one thing that the committee has proven, it’s that they are independent.  They have been looking at the “body of work” and eye test of these teams and carrying less weight on where the teams were ranked in the preseason.The tough part comes when we get to the grouping of Oregon, Arizona State, TCU, Baylor, Ohio State. A case could be made after the wins that Arizona State, TCU, and Ohio State posted this last weekend that all could be moved ahead of Oregon. It would be an accurate reflection of how each week these teams should be re-ranked based on what happens across the board in college football. Based on common opponents, Arizona State has had more impressive wins and dominated Notre Dame but they have a loss, where Florida State doesn’t. The question is, “Is a bad loss to a top team better then a win vs a bad team”, that’s where this committee could make a difference. If we took strength of schedule for 1 loss teams vs Florida State’s schedule, we could move them to 9th! Which is crazy to think about but it’s the truth and right now, they don’t look as good as the teams in that top 8. What appears to matter most in the rankings every week is who you beat, with that, TCU and Arizona State should move ahead of Alabama.

Now, I want to say, in no way do I think that these teams are better then Alabama but for this week they should be ranked higher. If Alabama beats Mississippi State, they will move two the #2 team next week. So for week 12 of the college football season, this is what we think the top 10 should be:

1.  Mississippi State

2.  Florida State

3.  TCU

4.  Oregon

5.  Arizona State

6.  Alabama

7.  Ohio State

8.  Baylor

9.  Auburn

10.  Ole Miss

Our @PAC12 2013 Preseason Top5* Rundown

PAC-12 Logo

2013 Pac 12 Conference Preseason Top 5* Rundown

The PAC 12 has quickly risen to the second toughest conference in all of BCS Football.  The diehards of every conference, well at least the major ones, will make an argument for their conference supremacy, so we here at the Rivals Rundown, will make the argument that the PAC 12 is the toughest conference top to bottom…ok not really, but the PAC is clearly the number 2 conference behind the SEC and here is why, welcome to our PAC 12 Conference Top5* Rundown:

1.  Oregon Ducks11-1 (PAC 12 Champions) (North Champions)

No real surprise here to us although it might be to some, considering 7 out of 16 major preseason publications have Stanford winning the PAC 12.  We here at the R&R see it a little different, with the fact that Oregon or Stanford both would’ve been a better show in the National Championship game last year, the only real difference this year, revenge.  Oregon will be like an unstoppable rocket heading directly for Stanford with only a trap game on the road to Washington standing in their way.  That’s right, we’re ignoring road games against UCLA and Virginia, seeing Washington as the only team that could trip Oregon before the Stanford showdown.  Oregon is loaded with 9 returners on offense and 7 returners on defense, with tons of top recruits ready to be plugged into the Ducks system.  We don’t think that Oregon can survive a complete year undefeated but we will be cheering for them if it comes down the stretch and they are the PAC’s best chance to represent in the National Title Game.

2.  USC Trojans  10-3 (South Champions)

If you look around, everyone loves Stanford at this spot, we don’t but we also don’t love USC.  We just think that they are too talented and have too easy of a schedule not to finish 10-3.  Anything less then 10-3, with the roster they have, with a schedule bypassing Oregon and Washington from the north, and home games of Stanford and UCLA, Coach Kiffin better do the right thing and just quit if they can’t reach double digits.  Look for a September match-up with Arizona St. to let everyone know who is in the driver seat for the South Title.  (Secretly we will be cheering for this pick to be wrong and for the Sun Devils to win the South, the PAC 12 and the National Championship…but we do that every year!!!)

3. Oregon State Beavers 9-3 

Sometimes preseason rankings make no sense to us, this is the case with the national media’s treatment of Oregon St.  So, last year the Beavers weren’t on anyone’s preseason radar to have the type of season they produced.  They had solid wins against Wisconsin, UCLA, BYU, Arizona St, and suffered two of their four losses (including the bowl game to Texas) to Stanford and Oregon…this year the Beavers have a non-conference schedule featuring Eastern Washington, Hawaii, and SDSU, they get Stanford, USC and Washington all at home…yet everyone has them on the outside looking in.  Well, not us here at the Rundown, we like the Beavers to have a chance to ruin Oregon’s BCS title game hopes on the last game of the regular season thus giving Oregon St. a shot at the PAC 12 Title.  Now, let’s clarify one thing, we are picking Oregon but we’re taking Oregon St over Stanford.

3.  Stanford Cardinal 9-3 

The Cardinal have posted double digit season for the past three years, since then, the Coach who got them there is now coaching in Super Bowls, the QB who got them there had one of the best rookie seasons in NFL history and yet the Cardinal is now being talked about as a “reload” type of program and 2013 is the year they can prove it… we don’t think so.  The 2013 campaign to us looks a lot like a season that will be successful for Shaw and the Cardinal but not up to the level of the last three.  We like the chances for USC and Oregon St to take back wins against the Cardinal as well as Oregon, that leads us to drop the Cardinal to this position, although we think they are a better overall team than Oregon St, we like the Beavers in the head to head game.

4.  Arizona State Sun Devils 9-3

(Homer Alert)  So yes, ASU is our home team here at the Rundown but being fair we think some of the preseason hype surrounding the Devils right now needs to calm down just a little bit.  The Devils need to get through one of the toughest stretches in all of college football, in-fact, we challenge you to find one tougher then Wisconsin, Stanford, USC, and Notre Dame.  If the Sun Devils get through that 2-2 it’s a win and with Oregon St and Washington at home, we like the Devils to make it to December with a chance to play for the PAC 12 Title.  (Now, our hearts say the Devils are going undefeated and I better get tickets and book a trip to the National Championship game…but that’s what I want every year)

5.  Washington Huskies 8-4 & UCLA Bruins 8-4

Before we get ahead of ourselves and cover every team in the PAC 12 that could have a winning season, we are going to lump these two programs together, maybe we should’ve done that with the Ducks and Cardinal.  Anyways, Washington and UCLA both are on the verge of bringing their programs back to national relevance, if that happens, then the PAC 12 will have an argument that they are the second best conference in college football.  We will call these two teams, our sleepers for the 2013 season, now we know that a lot of people are talking about UCLA winning the South but we need more proof, this year would be it.  UCLA is facing a revenge schedule, meaning, last year UCLA got wins against Nebraska, USC and ASU, we don’t see that happening two years in a row.  For the Huskies, they will break in a brand new stadium on opening day against, Boise St, if they can take that game, which might be a blow out for the Huskies (not kidding here) then look out for them to go 4-0 riding a ton of confidence into Stanford, Oregon, and Arizona St.  Those three games will determine if the Huskies are back.  And that’s why UCLA and Washington are our sleepers.

2013 Preseason Consensus from Stassen.com

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So now that the majority of preseason magazines for the upcoming 2013 season of College Football have been released, it’s time to start looking at the numbers and then taking a look at each team.  We’ll be using websites like these, preseason.stassen.com, to give us a broad look at all of the rankings from the major magazines.  We’ll also look at the websites out there and their rankings for conference  and overall wins.  My next post will be the odds from Vegas for the over/under win totals for all of the FBS Teams.

National Top 25

Rank Team Total
Points
Lindy Athlon TSN Phil
Steele
USA
Today
1 Alabama 150 1 1 1 1 1
2 Ohio State 142 2 2 5 2 2
3 Oregon 130 4 3 8 5 5
4 Stanford 129 3 7 2 11 3
5 Georgia 120 6 4 12 9 4
6 Texas A&M 114 5 9 7 13 7
7 South Carolina 113 9 5 3 14 11
8 Clemson 110 7 6 9 15 8
9 Louisville 105 10 10 11 7 12
10 Notre Dame 99 14 8 10 10 14
11 Florida 98 12 13 4 18 10
12 Oklahoma State 95 11 16 6 8 19
13 Florida State 89 13 15 18 3 17
14 Texas 88 18 18 14 4 13
15 Louisiana State 84 8 12 16 17 18
16 Boise State 75 17 11 15 6
17 Michigan 73 16 14 13 24 15
18 Nebraska 67 21 21 21 16 9
19 Oklahoma 64 15 17 19 19 21
20 Texas Christian 45 22 20 21 16
21 Southern Cal 31 25 6
22 Wisconsin 30 19 24 20
23 Fresno State 27 22 22 22
24 Baylor 26 19 17
25 Miami-Florida 22 24 22 25

Others receiving votes:

Rank Team Total
Points
Lindy Athlon TSN Phil
Steele
USA
Today
26t Michigan State 19 20 23
26t UCLA 19 23 20
26t Virginia Tech 19 12
29 Northwestern 18 24 20
30 Oregon State 14 25 23
31t Arizona State 8 23
31t Northern Illinois 8 23
33 Kansas State 7 24
34t Mississippi 6 25
34t Tulsa 6 25
36 unranked 0

Conference predictions

AAC (former Big East)

Rank Team Total
Points
Lindy Athlon TSN Phil
Steele
USA
Today
1 Louisville 5 1 1 1 1 1
2 Rutgers 15 2 3 2
3 Cincinnati 15½ 3 2 3 3
4 Central Florida 17½ 4 4 5 2
5 Houston 30½ 5 7 10 4
6 Connecticut 31½ 6 6 4 7
7 Southern Methodist 33½ 7 8 6 7
8 South Florida 34 8 5 7 8 6
9 Memphis 46 9 9 9 9 10
10 Temple 46½ 10 10 8 10

Notes:

  • Phil Steele predicted a tie between Rutgers and Southern Methodist for 5th-6th place in the AAC.
  • USA Today predicted a tie between Central Florida and Rutgers for 2nd-3rd place in the AAC.
  • USA Today predicted a tie between Cincinnati and Houston for 4th-5th place in the AAC.
  • USA Today predicted a tie between Connecticut and Temple for 8th-9th place in the AAC.

Atlantic Coast

Rank Team Total
Points
Lindy Athlon TSN Phil
Steele
USA
Today
Atlantic
1 Clemson 6 1 1 1 2 1
2 Florida State 9 2 2 2 1 2
3 N.C. State 18 4 4 3 4 3
4 Maryland 19 3 3 4 4 5
5 Wake Forest 27 7 5 6 4 5
6 Syracuse 29 6 6 5 7 5
7 Boston College 32 5 7 7 6 7
Coastal
1 Miami-Florida 1 1 1 2
2 Virginia Tech 11½ 3 2 4 1
3 Georgia Tech 15½ 2 3 3 4
4 North Carolina 16½ 4 4 2 3
5 Pittsburgh 26½ 5 5 5 6
6 Virginia 29½ 6 6 6 6
7 Duke 34 7 7 7 6 7

Notes:

  • Phil Steele predicted a three-way tie between Maryland, N.C. State, and Wake Forest, for 3rd-5th place in the ACC Atlantic division.
  • Phil Steele predicted a tie between Georgia Tech and North Carolina for 3rd-4th place in the ACC Coastal division.
  • Phil Steele predicted a three-way tie between Duke, Pittsburgh, and Virginia, for 5th-7th place in the ACC Coastal division.
  • USA Today predicted a three-way tie between Maryland, Syracuse, and Wake Forest, for 4th-6th place in the ACC Atlantic division.
  • USA Today predicted a tie between Miami-Florida and Virginia Tech for 1st-2nd place in the ACC Coastal division.
  • USA Today predicted a tie between Pittsburgh and Virginia for 5th-6th place in the ACC Coastal division.

Big Ten

Rank Team Total
Points
Lindy Athlon TSN Phil
Steele
USA
Today
Leaders
1 Ohio State 5 1 1 1 1 1
2 Wisconsin 10 2 2 2 2 2
3 Penn State 15 3 3 3 3 3
4 Indiana 21 4 4 5 4 4
5 Purdue 24½ 5 5 4 5
6 Illinois 29½ 6 6 6 6
Legends
1 Michigan 1 1 1 2
2 Nebraska 3 2 2 1
3 Michigan State 15½ 2 4 4 4
4 Northwestern 16½ 4 3 3 3
5 Iowa 27 5 6 6 5 5
6 Minnesota 28 6 5 5 6 6

Notes:

  • Lindy’s swapped Purdue/Illinois and Iowa/Minnesota in their division predictions — they had Iowa/Monnesota in Leaders and Purdue/Illinois in Legends. Since they predicted each pair of teams 5th/6th (in the wrong division), I counted that as a prediciton of 5th/6th in the proper one.
  • Phil Steele predicted a tie between Michigan State and Nebraska for 1st-2nd place in the Big Ten Legends division.
  • Phil Steele predicted a tie between Michigan and Northwestern for 3rd-4th place in the Big Ten Legends division.
  • USA Today predicted a tie between Illinois and Purdue for 5th-6th place in the Big Ten Leaders division.

Big XII

Rank Team Total
Points
Lindy Athlon TSN Phil
Steele
USA
Today
1 Oklahoma State 8 1 1 1 2 3
2 Texas 10 3 3 2 1 1
3 Oklahoma 13 2 2 3 3 3
4 Texas Christian 22 5 4 6 4 3
5 Baylor 25½ 4 6 4 5
6 Kansas State 27 6 5 5 6 5
7 Texas Tech 37 8 7 7 7 8
8 West Virginia 40½ 9 8 9 8
9 Iowa State 43 7 9 8
10 Kansas 49 10 10 10

Notes:

  • Phil Steele predicted a tie between Iowa State and Kansas for 9th-10th place in the Big XII.
  • USA Today predicted a tie between Baylor and West Virginia for 6th-7th place in the Big XII.
  • USA Today predicted a tie between Iowa State and Kansas for 9th-10th place in the Big XII.

Conference USA

Rank Team Total
Points
Lindy Athlon TSN Phil
Steele
USA
Today
East
1 East Carolina 1 2 1 2
2 Marshall 3 1 3 1
3 Middle Tennessee 16 2 3 2 5 4
4 Southern Miss 20½ 5 5 4 3
5 UAB 22 4 4 5
6 Florida Atlantic 30 6 6 6
7 Florida Int’l 34½ 7 7 7 7
West
1 Tulsa 5 1 1 1 1 1
2 Rice 10 2 2 2 2 2
3 Louisiana Tech 18 4 3 3
4 Texas-El Paso 23 3 4 4 6 6
5 North Texas 24 5 6 5
6 Tulane 25 6 5 6 3 5
7 UTSA 35 7 7 7 7 7

Notes:

  • Phil Steele predicted a tie between Southern Mississippi and UAB for 3rd-4th place in CUSA East.
  • Phil Steele predicted a tie between Florida Atlantic and Florida International for 6th-7th place in CUSA East.
  • Phil Steele predicted a tie between Louisiana Tech and North Texas for 4th-5th place in CUSA West.
  • USA Today predicted a tie between East Carolina and Marshall for 1st-2nd place in CUSA East.
  • USA Today predicted a tie between Florida Atlantic and UAB for 5th-6th place in CUSA East.
  • USA Today predicted a tie between Louisiana Tech and North Texas for 3rd-4th place in CUSA West.

Mid-American

Rank Team Total
Points
Lindy Athlon TSN Phil
Steele
USA
Today
East
1 Bowling Green 8 3 1 1 1 2
2 Ohio 9 1 2 3 2 1
3 Buffalo 16 2 4 4 3 3
4 Kent State 18 4 3 2 4 5
5 Miami-Ohio 25 6 5 5 5 4
6t Akron 32 7 6 7 6 6
6t Massachusetts 32 5 7 6 7 7
West
1 Northern Illinois 5 1 1 1 1 1
2 Toledo 12 3 3 2 2 2
3 Ball State 13 2 2 3 3 3
4 Western Michigan 21 4 4 5 4 4
5 Central Michigan 24 5 5 4 5 5
6 Eastern Michigan 30 6 6 6 6 6

Mountain West

Rank Team Total
Points
Lindy Athlon TSN Phil
Steele
USA
Today
West
1 Fresno State 5 1 1 1 1 1
2 San Diego State 12 3 3 2 2 2
3 San Jose State 14½ 2 2 3 3
4 Nevada 19 4 4 4 4 3
5 Nevada-Las Vegas 27 5 5 5 6 6
6 Hawaii 27½ 6 6 6 5
Mountain
1 Boise State 5 1 1 1 1 1
2 Utah State 10 2 2 2 2 2
3 Air Force 15½ 3 3 3 3
4 Wyoming 22½ 4 4 4 5
5 Colorado State 24 5 5 5
6 New Mexico 28 6 6 6 6 4

Notes:

  • Phil Steele predicted a tie between Air Force and Colorado State for 3rd-4th place in the MWC Mountain division.
  • USA Today predicted a tie between Hawai’i and San Jose State for 4th-5th place in the MWC West division.
  • USA Today predicted a tie between Colorado State and Wyoming for 5th-6th place in the MWC Mountain division.

Pacific 12

Rank Team Total
Points
Lindy Athlon TSN Phil
Steele
USA
Today
North
1t Oregon 2 1 2 1
1t Stanford 1 2 1 2
3 Oregon State 16½ 4 3 3 3
4 Washington 18½ 3 4 4 4
5 California 27 5 5 5 6 6
6 Washington State 28 6 6 6 5 5
South
1 UCLA 9 1 3 1 3 1
2 Arizona State 10½ 3 1 2 2
3 Southern Cal 11½ 2 2 4 1
4 Arizona 19½ 4 4 3 4
5 Utah 24½ 5 5 5 5
6 Colorado 30 6 6 6 6 6

Notes:

  • USA Today predicted a tie between Oregon and Stanford for 1st-2nd place in the PAC 12 North.
  • USA Today predicted a tie between Oregon State and Washington for 3rd-4th place in the PAC 12 North.
  • USA Today predicted a tie between Arizona State and Southern Cal for 2nd-3rd place in the PAC 12 South.
  • USA Today predicted a tie between Arizona and Utah for 4th-5th place in the PAC 12 South.

Southeastern

Rank Team Total
Points
Lindy Athlon TSN Phil
Steele
USA
Today
East
1 Georgia 7 1 1 3 1 1
2 South Carolina 10 2 2 1
3 Florida 13 3 3 2
4 Vanderbilt 21½ 4 4 4 4
5 Tennessee 24½ 5 5 5 4
6 Missouri 29 6 6 6
7 Kentucky 35 7 7 7 7 7
West
1 Alabama 5 1 1 1 1 1
2 Texas A&M 10½ 2 2 2 2
3 Louisiana State 14½ 3 3 3 3
4 Mississippi 20½ 4 4 4 4
5 Mississippi State 28 5 5 7
6 Arkansas 29½ 6 7 5 5
7 Auburn 32 7 6 6

Notes:

  • Phil Steele predicted a tie between Florida and South Carolina for 2nd-3rd place in the SEC East.
  • Phil Steele predicted a tie between Missouri and Vanderbilt for 5th-6th place in the SEC East.
  • Phil Steele predicted a tie between Louisiana State and Texas A&M for 2nd-3rd place in the SEC West.
  • Phil Steele predicted a tie between Auburn and Mississippi State for 6th-7th place in the SEC West.
  • USA Today predicted a tie between Florida and South Carolina for 2nd-3rd place in the SEC East.
  • USA Today predicted a tie between Missouri and Tenneessee for 5th-6th place in the SEC East.
  • USA Today predicted a tie between Mississippi and Mississippi State for 4th-5th place in the SEC West.
  • USA Today predicted a tie between Arkansas and Auburn for 6th-7th place in the SEC West.

Sun Belt

Rank Team Total
Points
Lindy Athlon TSN Phil
Steele
USA
Today
1 Louisiana-Lafay. 8 3 1 2 1 1
2t Louisiana-Monroe 13½ 1 2 3 3
2t Western Kentucky 13½ 4 3 1 3
4 Arkansas State 17½ 2 4 4 3
5 Troy 22½ 5 5 5 5
6 Texas State 30 6 6 6 6 6
7 South Alabama 35 7 7 7 7 7
8 Georgia State 40 8 8 8 8 8

Notes:

  • Phil Steele predicted a three-way tie between Arkansas State, Louisiana-Monroe, and Western Kentucky, for 2nd-4th place in the Sun Belt.
  • USA Today predicted a tie between Troy and Western Kentucky for 2nd-3rd place in the Sun Belt.
  • USA Today predicted a tie between Arkansas State and Louisiana-Monroe for 4th-5th place in the Sun Belt.