Predicting the College Football Playoff Top 10

After another great weekend of College Football, we sit trying to predicted what the College Football Playoff Committee will do.  We’ve now seen the movement with the polls but if there is one thing that the committee has proven, it’s that they are independent.  They have been looking at the “body of work” and eye test of these teams and carrying less weight on where the teams were ranked in the preseason.The tough part comes when we get to the grouping of Oregon, Arizona State, TCU, Baylor, Ohio State. A case could be made after the wins that Arizona State, TCU, and Ohio State posted this last weekend that all could be moved ahead of Oregon. It would be an accurate reflection of how each week these teams should be re-ranked based on what happens across the board in college football. Based on common opponents, Arizona State has had more impressive wins and dominated Notre Dame but they have a loss, where Florida State doesn’t. The question is, “Is a bad loss to a top team better then a win vs a bad team”, that’s where this committee could make a difference. If we took strength of schedule for 1 loss teams vs Florida State’s schedule, we could move them to 9th! Which is crazy to think about but it’s the truth and right now, they don’t look as good as the teams in that top 8. What appears to matter most in the rankings every week is who you beat, with that, TCU and Arizona State should move ahead of Alabama.

Now, I want to say, in no way do I think that these teams are better then Alabama but for this week they should be ranked higher. If Alabama beats Mississippi State, they will move two the #2 team next week. So for week 12 of the college football season, this is what we think the top 10 should be:

1.  Mississippi State

2.  Florida State

3.  TCU

4.  Oregon

5.  Arizona State

6.  Alabama

7.  Ohio State

8.  Baylor

9.  Auburn

10.  Ole Miss

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