Predicting the College Football Playoff Top 10

After another great weekend of College Football, we sit trying to predicted what the College Football Playoff Committee will do.  We’ve now seen the movement with the polls but if there is one thing that the committee has proven, it’s that they are independent.  They have been looking at the “body of work” and eye test of these teams and carrying less weight on where the teams were ranked in the preseason.The tough part comes when we get to the grouping of Oregon, Arizona State, TCU, Baylor, Ohio State. A case could be made after the wins that Arizona State, TCU, and Ohio State posted this last weekend that all could be moved ahead of Oregon. It would be an accurate reflection of how each week these teams should be re-ranked based on what happens across the board in college football. Based on common opponents, Arizona State has had more impressive wins and dominated Notre Dame but they have a loss, where Florida State doesn’t. The question is, “Is a bad loss to a top team better then a win vs a bad team”, that’s where this committee could make a difference. If we took strength of schedule for 1 loss teams vs Florida State’s schedule, we could move them to 9th! Which is crazy to think about but it’s the truth and right now, they don’t look as good as the teams in that top 8. What appears to matter most in the rankings every week is who you beat, with that, TCU and Arizona State should move ahead of Alabama.

Now, I want to say, in no way do I think that these teams are better then Alabama but for this week they should be ranked higher. If Alabama beats Mississippi State, they will move two the #2 team next week. So for week 12 of the college football season, this is what we think the top 10 should be:

1.  Mississippi State

2.  Florida State

3.  TCU

4.  Oregon

5.  Arizona State

6.  Alabama

7.  Ohio State

8.  Baylor

9.  Auburn

10.  Ole Miss

Week 5 College Football Games to Watch

 

Aaron Murray Georgia BulldogsThank you Baby Jesus that we made it to Week 5 of the College Football Season!  With no major match-ups and with the best game of the weekend over with on Friday night between Fresno State and Boise State, we have made it back to a weekend of real games, most importantly, Conference Games!  For the most part this weekend marks the beginning of Conference play, which marks the beginning of “who’s real and who’s faking it!”

As we found out last week, Arizona State is questionable Top 30 material, while Stanford proved they are Top 5 material.  Look Wisconsin the week before, while the ran for 200+ yards on the Devils, if you subtract one home-run run of 70, ASU held Wisconsin to 130ish yards, statistically they are the best rushing team in the whole country.  Stanford had no problems running, passing or causing disruption all over the field, this brings us to Week 5, so who this week will prove to be the Stanford and who will be the Sun Devils?

First, one note on the Fresno State vs Boise State Match-up:  These two teams are Top 25 teams, no questions asked, Boise State might be the best two loss team in the Country, right in-front of Utah State.  Derek Carr is a legit Heisman Candidate, he has proven himself as an NFL passer and clutch in two prime time games on ESPN.  Fresno and Colorado have to make up their missed game and let’s hope the two (Boise, Fresno) teams win out the season and play for the Mountain West Title and a possible BCS birth.  Think of it, Fresno State could finish with a better strength of schedule over Louisville, one big problem, they don’t have the ranking yet but we’ll see.  Anyways, on to week 5 games!

 

We stay in the Mountain West!

Utah State at San Jose State

Normally we like home dogs on Thursday or Friday nights, something about the upset and national tv just works!  Look up the numbers!  This time, we think Utah State is finally licking their chops after losing very close games to Utah and USC, we think that the Aggies are going to come into Spartan Stadium ready to unload what some are calling, “The Poor Man’s Manziel” in QB Chuckie Keeton all over the field on an over-matched Spartans Defense.  In a rare one, we are taking Utah State to Cover on a Friday Night!

 

Moving East

East Carolina at North Carolina

This is a must win for the North Carolina Tar Heels.  After losing by 8 to a very tricking and tough to read Georgia Tech team, North Carolina enters this match-up at 1-2 and still the Tar Heels have to get through the heart of their ACC schedule before things get easier.  For East Carolina, it’s not a must win as they still have to get into the depth of conference play but we like the Pirates to keep things close.  Let’s take East Carolina and the points.  Also the over deserves a second look.

 

Now for some Big Boys!

LSU at Georgia

These two teams are National Champions in the waiting, the stakes couldn’t be higher, blah blah, yada yada yada.  Look, we know what’s going on here, this game is to take claim for a solid top 5 spot and for Georgia, it’s a must win to keep their outside shot of being the only one loss team with National Championship hopes alive.  The main factors that we are all going to be watching fall to Georgia’s defense and LSU’s offense.  The major difference we feel is that Georgia’s defense has been tested and has gained quick and important experience by already playing two top ten teams.  They have the help of playing at home, which strengthens the defense and they have an offense that can keep up with anyone in the country.  For LSU this is their first major test, yes we all felt going into the TCU game that that would provide the test but comparing TCU and Georgia isn’t fair, TCU has fallen short of our preseason hype, while Georgia is fitting into the mold we expected.  We’re not buying the Tigers yet over the Bulldogs so we’re taking Georgia to cover.

 

And our Final Game:

Ball State vs Toledo

Bet you didn’t see that one coming!  Look there are great games this weekend, Wisconsin vs Ohio State, Oklahoma vs Notre Dame and Ole Miss vs Alabama but everyone is talking about those.  We want to talk about a game between two rising programs in the MAC that need some love.  The importance of this game? The winner has a fast-tracked chance at competing against Northern Illinois for the MAC West Title.   The key is that both of these teams can do it!  We recommend that if you want to watch two teams put everything on the line in week 5, check this one out.  We like Ball State in this one!

 

Side notes:

We like Alabama, Oklahoma and Ohio State.  We think that all three teams are going to come out with something to prove, all for different reasons.  Look for Ohio State to expose the weak secondary of Wisconsin with a balanced run, option, throw attack.  Look for Oklahoma to do the same actually to Notre Dame.  Alabama and Ole Miss might be close at halftime but we see the Tide pulling away in the 4th Quarter.

 

Final Note-

Because we were late with this post, we had a chance to watch the Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech game.  Virginia Tech’s defense is getting better every week and is going to give this Hokies team a chance in every football game from here til the end of the season.  We’re standing by our prediction for Virginia Tech, for now, although we need that QB to step up the way that he should be in this season.

Our Week 5 Top 25 Update!!!

NCAA Football: Arizona State at Stanford

Here is our Top 25 Ranking for Week 5 of the College Football Season.  Week four was a lackluster week of games in college football, which would leave one to believe we’d have little movement in our Top 25 Rankings… it’s kinda true.  So our top teams went unchanged but after watching some of the performances by our next 15 we had to do a little housecleaning to make sure that everyone is where they belong.  We saw Michigan continue to drop after what was a dominating performance against Notre Dame two weeks ago, while they have won both games since, neither wins have impressed us enough for them to maintain and if it wasn’t for the Notre Dame game, they would be with Maryland and Texas Tech as questionable unbeatens.  Speaking of Maryland, if you have followed our blog or rankings, you’ll know that we called this and that we have started the unofficial campaign for CJ Brown’s Heisman candidacy.  Other notables, was our Sun Devils getting thumped by what looked like an NFL team in Stanford.  The silver lining was that the Devils fought till the end and came within a 4th down of having a chance to pull within 11 points with 4 minutes still left.  Either way, they drop out of the top 25, again because of the performance.  A top 25 team should be competitive within the rankings, sans Alabama and Oregon (maybe Stanford, we’ll see).  Side note, keep you eye on UCF, the Knights might still be one of the better teams that no one is talking about.  Also Washington and Baylor could both be considered outside contenders in their respective conferences to win!  While we’re sharing random thoughts, how about Utah, they beat their instate Rivals Utah St and BYU to Own the State but a slip vs Oregon St who lost to Eastern Washington, keeps them off of the National Radar and ours.  We’ll Utah, let’s see what you can do against the Pac12 South!  Big game this week that we are personally stoked about and might get some play, Maryland and Florida State.  Check back this week as we will have our Rivals Rundown Rewind and games to look forward to this weekend.  Enjoy your NFL Sunday Funday!  Update: We missed Texas Tech as the 25th ranked team when we originally published, so we had a couple of moves made to 25-30 and out…

 RIVALS RUNDOWN TOP 25 WEEK 5

Current Rank Previous Week Team
1 1 Alabama Crimson Tide, 3-0
2 2 Oregon Ducks, 3-0
3 3 Clemson Tigers 3-0
4 4 Ohio State Buckeyes 4-0
5 5 Louisville Cardinals 4-0
6 6 Florida State Seminoles 3-0
7 7 Oklahoma State Cowboys 3-0
8 8 LSU Tigers 4-0
9 9 Georgia Bulldogs 2-1
10 13 Texas A&M Aggies 3-1
11 11 Stanford Cardinal 3-0
12 15 Baylor Bears 3-0
13 13 UCLA Bruins 3-0
14 14 Miami Hurricanes 3-0
15 17 Oklahoma Sooners 3-0
16 16 Washington Huskies 3-0
17 21 Ole Miss Rebels 3-0
18 18 Fresno State Bulldogs 3-0
19 19 Florida Gators 2-1
20 20 South Carolina 2-1
21 25 Northwestern 4-0
22 24 Wisconsin Badgers 3-1
23 12 Michigan Wolverines 4-0
24 Unranked Notre Dame 3-1
25 30 Texas Tech Red Raiders 4-0
Next 5-
26 28 Boise State Broncos 2-2
27 Unranked UCF Knights 3-0
28 26 Michigan State Spartans 3-1
29 Unranked Maryland Terrapins 4-0
30 27 Nebraska Cornhuskers 3-1
Out-
23 Arizona State Sun Devils 2-1
29 Northern Ill Huskies 3-0

(stats via espn.com; photo sbnation.com)

Rivals Rundown College Football Top 25 Week 4

Nebraska vs UCLA College Football 2013

Week 4 of College Football is now upon us and here at the Rundown we’re feeling pretty good. Not only did our team steal a W and stay in the Top 25. Our Top 25 had little movement, which any week that happens, means we’re doing something right over here. The biggest Loser of Week 3 was Nebraska and that hurts, not only did we post a blog just about how “bullish” we were on the Huskers a couple of weeks back but we had them in our Top 10! Sitting watching the beginning of that game, we were waiting to see what Nebraska’s Defense would do and man did those black uniforms look good! So good that UCLA thought the jersey’s were freshly laid pavement and left tire treads all over ‘em. So Nebraska quickly became our Most Overrated pick, let’s see if they can fight back into our Top 25 or if they falter…Back to the rankings, So Texas A&M might be the first team ever to move up in rankings based off of a loss but the way they played against Alabama, the deserve to be higher, the other big movers are UCLA and Ole Miss. We would like to point out that Arizona State and Wisconsin didn’t move, we had them in and they will both stay in… until this coming Saturday when the Sun Devils square off with our #11 team Stanford Cardinal then they might be the biggest mover. No big match-ups other then that PAC-12 North vs South. Look later this week for a preview of a couple of our favorite games. Also, if you missed our story on CJ Brown go check it out, his stat-line: Passing 15 of 28 for 277 1TD 1INT Rushing 16 for 122 1 TD and put Maryland on our Rivals Rundown Top 25 Radar, still the best player no one is talking about.

 

Current Rank Previous Week Team  
1 1 Alabama Crimson Tide 2-0
2 2 Oregon Ducks 3-0
3 3 Clemson Tigers 2-0
4 4 Ohio State Buckeyes 3-0
5 5 Louisville Cardinals 3-0
6 6 Florida State Seminoles 2-0
7 7 Oklahoma State Cowboys 3-0
8 8 LSU Tigers 3-0
9 9 Georgia Bulldogs 1-1
10 13 Texas A&M Aggies 2-1
11 11 Stanford Cardinal 2-0
12 12 Michigan Wolverines 3-0
13 17 UCLA Bruins 2-0
14 14 Miami Hurricanes 2-0
15 15 Baylor Bears 2-0
16 16 Washington Huskies 2-0
18 18 Oklahoma Sooners 3-0
19 19 Fresno State Bulldogs 2-0
20 20 Florida Gators 1-1
21 21 South Carolina 2-1
22 27 Ole Miss Rebels 3-0
23 23 Arizona State Sun Devils 2-0
24 24 Wisconsin Badgers 2-1
25 25 Northwestern 3-0
       
Next 5-      
26 28 Michigan State Spartans 3-0
27 10 Nebraska Cornhuskers 2-1
28 30 Boise State Broncos 2-1
29 27 Northern Ill Huskies 2-0
30 Unranked Texas Tech Red Raiders 3-0
       
Out-      
    TCU Horned Frogs 1-2

(image latimes.com, stats ESPN.com)

Rivals Rundown Top 25 – Week 3

 cropped-rivalsrundown-red-black-1-2.jpg

Week 2 of the College Football Season is now in the books and with it a couple of our 25 teams, well for now.  It’s hard to imagine that one loss could end your season or at least your ranking in our Top 25 but in the cases of USC, Texas, and Cincinnati, that’s exactly what we think happened.  The worst of the three by far is USC, there is no way a team with that much talent should have such a bad offense, they could pathetic not being able to move the ball against what will prove to be a week Washington State team.  Anyways, here we go with our Week 3 Top 25 teams of College Football.  Come back later in the week when we will do our rewind and see how this Top 25 came together.

Current Rank Previous Week Team
1 1 Alabama Crimson Tide
2 2 Oregon Ducks
3 3 Clemson Tigers
4 4 Ohio State Buckeyes
5 5 Louisville Cardinals
6 6 Florida State Seminoles
7 7 Oklahoma State Cowboys
8 9 LSU Tigers
9 12 Georgia Bulldogs
10 11 Nebraska Cornhuskers
11 13 Stanford Cardinal
12 20 Michigan Wolverines
13 18 Texas A&M Aggies
14 29 Miami Hurricanes
15 16 Baylor Bears
16 17 Washington Huskies
17 26 UCLA Bruins
18 15 Oklahoma Sooners
19 19 Fresno State Bulldogs
20 14 Florida Gators
21 8 South Carolina
22 22 TCU Horned Frogs
23 23 Arizona State Sun Devils
24 30 Wisconsin Badgers
25 21 Northwestern
NEXT 5-    
26 27 Northern Ill Huskies
27 Unranked Ole Miss Rebels
28 Unranked Michigan State Spartans
29 Unranked BYU Cougars
30 Unranked Boise State Broncos