SEC · Razorbacks · Fayetteville, AR
Arkansas
Your complete Arkansas season outlook.
The offense retains upside, yet a new staff, a major integration load and a difficult schedule create the conference's widest lower-tier range.
Home stadiumDonald W. Reynolds Razorback StadiumRPR rank#49Projected-wins rank#121
Projected wins3.85Most likely: 4 wins · 80% range 3–5
Rundown Power Rating +4.6Neutral-field strength
RPR Rank #49National power position
Schedule Strength Rank#2Opponent difficulty
Projected-Wins Rank #121Strength plus schedule
Market total4.5
Adjusted Edge -0.36
Probability over30%
Market basis12 games
Team profile
RPR and model ratings
- Rundown Power Rating
- +4.6
- National RPR Rank
- #49
- Schedule strength rank
- #2
- Average opponent power
- +12.1
- Offense rating
- 33.8
- Defense rating
- 29.3
- Projected QB
- KJ Jackson
- QB starts
- 2
- QB confidence
- Medium
- Head coach
- Ryan Silverfield
- Returning starters
- 7
- Portal rank
- 14
- Roster fragility
- 68.3
Record outcomes
Win distribution
0<1%
12.6%
213.7%
326.1%
427.4%
518.3%
68.4%
72.8%
80.6%
9<1%
10<1%
11<1%
12<1%
13<1%
Game by game
2026 projected scores and probabilities
Expected scores and margins are model means, not exact-score guarantees.
Each matchup becomes a compact projection card on portrait phones.
| Game | Date | Opponent | Location | Projected score | Projected total | Projected margin | Win probability | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5, 2026 | North Alabama | Home | 41–17 | 58.2 | +24.1 | 95% | Low |
| 2 | Sep 12, 2026 | Away | 25–35 | 59.7 | -10.0 | 25% | Medium | |
| 3 | Sep 19, 2026 | Home | 19–39 | 58.0 | -20.8 | 8% | High | |
| 4 | Sep 26, 2026 | Home | 37–23 | 60.1 | +14.4 | 83% | Medium | |
| 5 | Oct 3, 2026 | Away | 20–40 | 59.5 | -20.1 | 9% | Medium | |
| 6 | Oct 10, 2026 | Home | 27–37 | 63.6 | -9.7 | 26% | Medium | |
| 7 | Oct 17, 2026 | Away | 27–34 | 61.1 | -7.8 | 30% | Medium | |
| 8 | Oct 31, 2026 | Home | 24–33 | 57.0 | -8.4 | 29% | Medium | |
| 9 | Nov 7, 2026 | Away | 22–33 | 55.3 | -10.9 | 23% | Medium | |
| 10 | Nov 14, 2026 | Home | 25–31 | 56.1 | -6.5 | 33% | Medium | |
| 11 | Nov 21, 2026 | Away | 17–41 | 58.3 | -23.6 | 6% | High | |
| 12 | Nov 28, 2026 | Home | 19–35 | 54.5 | -15.6 | 15% | Medium |
Projection context
These projections reflect the current Rivals Rundown football inputs and are refreshed as the underlying information changes.
Model version 5. RPR, rankings, margins and probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.