American · Golden Hurricane · Tulsa, OK
Tulsa
Your complete Tulsa season outlook.
Nine returning starters, 77% snapback and Baylor Hayes give Tulsa one of the league's clearest continuity advantages.
Home stadiumH.A. Chapman StadiumRPR rank#96Projected-wins rank#70
Projected wins6.26Most likely: 6 wins · 80% range 5–8
Rundown Power Rating -7.0Neutral-field strength
RPR Rank #96National power position
Schedule Strength Rank#104Opponent difficulty
Projected-Wins Rank #70Strength plus schedule
Market total5.5
Adjusted Edge +0.81
Probability over69%
Market basis12 games
Team profile
RPR and model ratings
- Rundown Power Rating
- -7.0
- National RPR Rank
- #96
- Schedule strength rank
- #104
- Average opponent power
- -8.7
- Offense rating
- 23.7
- Defense rating
- 31.5
- Projected QB
- Baylor Hayes
- QB starts
- 9
- QB confidence
- Medium-High
- Head coach
- Tre Lamb
- Returning starters
- 9
- Portal rank
- 10
- Roster fragility
- 37.9
Record outcomes
Win distribution
0<1%
1<1%
2<1%
32.6%
48.8%
518.9%
625.6%
723.0%
813.8%
95.3%
101.3%
11<1%
12<1%
13<1%
Game by game
2026 projected scores and probabilities
Expected scores and margins are model means, not exact-score guarantees.
Each matchup becomes a compact projection card on portrait phones.
| Game | Date | Opponent | Location | Projected score | Projected total | Projected margin | Win probability | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5, 2026 | Home | 21–34 | 55.1 | -13.2 | 19% | Medium | |
| 2 | Sep 12, 2026 | Away | 36–19 | 55.1 | +16.9 | 87% | Medium | |
| 3 | Sep 19, 2026 | East Texas A&M | Home | 34–19 | 53.7 | +15.3 | 85% | Medium |
| 4 | Sep 26, 2026 | Away | 23–37 | 60.1 | -14.4 | 17% | Medium | |
| 5 | Oct 1, 2026 | Home | 32–26 | 57.9 | +6.4 | 67% | Medium | |
| 6 | Oct 10, 2026 | Away | 22–33 | 55.1 | -10.8 | 24% | High | |
| 7 | Oct 17, 2026 | Away | 28–24 | 52.2 | +4.8 | 62% | Medium | |
| 8 | Oct 23, 2026 | Home | 26–28 | 53.9 | -2.0 | 45% | Low | |
| 9 | Nov 7, 2026 | Away | 24–29 | 53.1 | -4.1 | 39% | Medium | |
| 10 | Nov 14, 2026 | Home | 31–29 | 59.7 | +1.8 | 55% | Low | |
| 11 | Nov 21, 2026 | Home | 41–13 | 54.1 | +27.3 | 97% | Medium | |
| 12 | Nov 27, 2026 | Away | 26–34 | 59.0 | -8.0 | 30% | Medium |
Projection context
These projections reflect the current Rivals Rundown football inputs and are refreshed as the underlying information changes.
Model version 5. RPR, rankings, margins and probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.