SEC · Tigers · Columbia, MO
Missouri
Your complete Missouri season outlook.
Austin Simmons offers arm talent, but zero returning defensive starters and a negative net portal signal are meaningful hidden risks.
Home stadiumFaurot Field at Memorial StadiumRPR rank#21Projected-wins rank#52
Projected wins7.13Most likely: 7 wins · 80% range 6–8
Rundown Power Rating +14.3Neutral-field strength
RPR Rank #21National power position
Schedule Strength Rank#14Opponent difficulty
Projected-Wins Rank #52Strength plus schedule
Market total6.5
Adjusted Edge +0.55
Probability over66%
Market basis12 games
Team profile
RPR and model ratings
- Rundown Power Rating
- +14.3
- National RPR Rank
- #21
- Schedule strength rank
- #14
- Average opponent power
- +8.9
- Offense rating
- 32.2
- Defense rating
- 17.5
- Projected QB
- Austin Simmons
- QB starts
- 2
- QB confidence
- Medium
- Head coach
- Eli Drinkwitz
- Returning starters
- 6
- Portal rank
- 11
- Roster fragility
- 43.2
Record outcomes
Win distribution
0<1%
1<1%
2<1%
30.7%
43.4%
510.0%
619.7%
725.4%
822.2%
912.8%
104.6%
110.9%
12<1%
13<1%
Game by game
2026 projected scores and probabilities
Expected scores and margins are model means, not exact-score guarantees.
Each matchup becomes a compact projection card on portrait phones.
| Game | Date | Opponent | Location | Projected score | Projected total | Projected margin | Win probability | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 3, 2026 | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | Home | 46–5 | 50.6 | +40.9 | >99% | Medium |
| 2 | Sep 11, 2026 | Away | 31–21 | 52.0 | +9.1 | 73% | Medium | |
| 3 | Sep 19, 2026 | Home | 37–15 | 51.6 | +22.0 | 93% | Medium | |
| 4 | Sep 26, 2026 | Away | 31–23 | 53.5 | +8.2 | 71% | Medium | |
| 5 | Oct 3, 2026 | Home | 24–23 | 47.2 | +1.4 | 54% | Low | |
| 6 | Oct 10, 2026 | Home | 24–28 | 51.9 | -3.6 | 40% | Low | |
| 7 | Oct 17, 2026 | Away | 24–28 | 52.4 | -4.1 | 39% | Medium | |
| 8 | Oct 31, 2026 | Away | 33–24 | 57.0 | +8.4 | 71% | Medium | |
| 9 | Nov 7, 2026 | Home | 22–29 | 50.7 | -7.4 | 31% | Medium | |
| 10 | Nov 14, 2026 | Away | 18–32 | 50.4 | -14.1 | 17% | High | |
| 11 | Nov 21, 2026 | Home | 30–18 | 47.6 | +12.1 | 79% | Medium | |
| 12 | Nov 28, 2026 | Home | 23–25 | 47.5 | -1.6 | 46% | Low |
Projection context
These projections reflect the current Rivals Rundown football inputs and are refreshed as the underlying information changes.
Model version 5. RPR, rankings, margins and probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.