SEC · Commodores · Nashville, TN
Vanderbilt
Your complete Vanderbilt season outlook.
Clark Lea and continuity provide a floor, but replacing Diego Pavia with a low-confidence freshman projection materially lowers the offense.
Home stadiumFirstBank StadiumRPR rank#34Projected-wins rank#71
Projected wins6.26Most likely: 6 wins · 80% range 5–8
Rundown Power Rating +9.6Neutral-field strength
RPR Rank #34National power position
Schedule Strength Rank#23Opponent difficulty
Projected-Wins Rank #71Strength plus schedule
Market total5.5
Adjusted Edge +0.60
Probability over69%
Market basis12 games
Team profile
RPR and model ratings
- Rundown Power Rating
- +9.6
- National RPR Rank
- #34
- Schedule strength rank
- #23
- Average opponent power
- +8.0
- Offense rating
- 32.7
- Defense rating
- 24.1
- Projected QB
- Jared Curtis
- QB starts
- 0
- QB confidence
- Low
- Head coach
- Clark Lea
- Returning starters
- 10
- Portal rank
- 15
- Roster fragility
- 48.8
Record outcomes
Win distribution
0<1%
1<1%
20.5%
32.8%
49.2%
518.8%
624.9%
722.8%
813.6%
95.6%
101.4%
11<1%
12<1%
13<1%
Game by game
2026 projected scores and probabilities
Expected scores and margins are model means, not exact-score guarantees.
Each matchup becomes a compact projection card on portrait phones.
| Game | Date | Opponent | Location | Projected score | Projected total | Projected margin | Win probability | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5, 2026 | Austin Peay | Home | 39–15 | 54.7 | +24.3 | 95% | Medium |
| 2 | Sep 12, 2026 | Home | 42–17 | 58.3 | +24.7 | 95% | High | |
| 3 | Sep 19, 2026 | Home | 32–25 | 57.1 | +6.9 | 68% | Medium | |
| 4 | Sep 26, 2026 | Away | 23–29 | 51.8 | -5.6 | 36% | Medium | |
| 5 | Oct 3, 2026 | Away | 17–37 | 54.5 | -20.3 | 9% | High | |
| 6 | Oct 10, 2026 | Home | 26–31 | 56.4 | -5.3 | 36% | Medium | |
| 7 | Oct 17, 2026 | Home | 34–27 | 61.1 | +7.8 | 70% | Medium | |
| 8 | Oct 24, 2026 | Away | 27–24 | 51.6 | +2.9 | 58% | Low | |
| 9 | Nov 7, 2026 | Away | 30–27 | 57.5 | +3.3 | 59% | Low | |
| 10 | Nov 14, 2026 | Home | 21–28 | 49.8 | -7.1 | 32% | Medium | |
| 11 | Nov 21, 2026 | Away | 21–30 | 51.2 | -8.6 | 28% | Medium | |
| 12 | Nov 28, 2026 | Home | 28–32 | 60.0 | -3.8 | 40% | Low |
Projection context
These projections reflect the current Rivals Rundown football inputs and are refreshed as the underlying information changes.
Model version 5. RPR, rankings, margins and probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.