SEC · Longhorns · Austin, TX
Texas
Your complete Texas season outlook.
Arch Manning, strong continuity and a high-quality portal class create a championship-level median with manageable fragility.
Home stadiumDarrell K Royal–Texas Memorial StadiumRPR rank#6Projected-wins rank#13
Projected wins8.77Most likely: 9 wins · 80% range 8–10
Rundown Power Rating +24.6Neutral-field strength
RPR Rank #6National power position
Schedule Strength Rank#1Opponent difficulty
Projected-Wins Rank #13Strength plus schedule
Market total9.5
Adjusted Edge -0.50
Probability over31%
Market basis12 games
Team profile
RPR and model ratings
- Rundown Power Rating
- +24.6
- National RPR Rank
- #6
- Schedule strength rank
- #1
- Average opponent power
- +12.9
- Offense rating
- 38.0
- Defense rating
- 14.0
- Projected QB
- Arch Manning
- QB starts
- 15
- QB confidence
- High
- Head coach
- Steve Sarkisian
- Returning starters
- 11
- Portal rank
- 3
- Roster fragility
- 12.6
Record outcomes
Win distribution
0<1%
1<1%
2<1%
3<1%
4<1%
51.0%
64.4%
712.4%
823.4%
927.7%
1020.8%
118.6%
121.6%
13<1%
Game by game
2026 projected scores and probabilities
Expected scores and margins are model means, not exact-score guarantees.
Each matchup becomes a compact projection card on portrait phones.
| Game | Date | Opponent | Location | Projected score | Projected total | Projected margin | Win probability | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5, 2026 | Home | 48–14 | 62.5 | +33.5 | 99% | High | |
| 2 | Sep 12, 2026 | Home | 22–28 | 50.7 | -5.8 | 35% | Medium | |
| 3 | Sep 19, 2026 | Home | 43–14 | 57.2 | +29.6 | 98% | High | |
| 4 | Sep 26, 2026 | Away | 32–25 | 57.2 | +7.4 | 69% | Medium | |
| 5 | Oct 10, 2026 | Neutral | 27–22 | 48.8 | +5.5 | 64% | Medium | |
| 6 | Oct 17, 2026 | Home | 30–19 | 48.5 | +11.0 | 77% | High | |
| 7 | Oct 24, 2026 | Home | 32–21 | 53.6 | +10.7 | 76% | High | |
| 8 | Oct 31, 2026 | Home | 39–16 | 54.7 | +23.3 | 94% | High | |
| 9 | Nov 7, 2026 | Away | 29–22 | 50.7 | +7.4 | 69% | Medium | |
| 10 | Nov 14, 2026 | Away | 24–25 | 48.3 | -0.9 | 48% | Low | |
| 11 | Nov 21, 2026 | Home | 41–17 | 58.3 | +23.6 | 94% | High | |
| 12 | Nov 27, 2026 | Away | 27–26 | 53.2 | +1.4 | 54% | Low |
Projection context
These projections reflect the current Rivals Rundown football inputs and are refreshed as the underlying information changes.
Model version 5. RPR, rankings, margins and probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.