SEC · Wildcats · Lexington, KY
Kentucky
Your complete Kentucky season outlook.
Will Stein's quarterback-development history helps Kenny Minchey, but only four starters return and depth remains a concern.
Home stadiumKroger FieldRPR rank#57Projected-wins rank#118
Projected wins4.12Most likely: 4 wins · 80% range 3–5
Rundown Power Rating +3.7Neutral-field strength
RPR Rank #57National power position
Schedule Strength Rank#3Opponent difficulty
Projected-Wins Rank #118Strength plus schedule
Market total4.5
Adjusted Edge -0.64
Probability over38%
Market basis12 games
Team profile
RPR and model ratings
- Rundown Power Rating
- +3.7
- National RPR Rank
- #57
- Schedule strength rank
- #3
- Average opponent power
- +11.2
- Offense rating
- 25.1
- Defense rating
- 21.4
- Projected QB
- Kenny Minchey
- QB starts
- 0
- QB confidence
- High
- Head coach
- Will Stein
- Returning starters
- 4
- Portal rank
- 5
- Roster fragility
- 69.7
Record outcomes
Win distribution
0<1%
12.4%
210.8%
322.0%
426.6%
520.7%
611.3%
74.5%
81.2%
9<1%
10<1%
11<1%
12<1%
13<1%
Game by game
2026 projected scores and probabilities
Expected scores and margins are model means, not exact-score guarantees.
Each matchup becomes a compact projection card on portrait phones.
| Game | Date | Opponent | Location | Projected score | Projected total | Projected margin | Win probability | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5, 2026 | Youngstown State | Home | 31–18 | 48.9 | +13.8 | 82% | Low |
| 2 | Sep 12, 2026 | Home | 16–28 | 44.1 | -11.2 | 23% | Medium | |
| 3 | Sep 19, 2026 | Away | 16–34 | 50.1 | -18.7 | 11% | Medium | |
| 4 | Sep 26, 2026 | Home | 36–17 | 52.4 | +18.9 | 90% | Medium | |
| 5 | Oct 3, 2026 | Away | 18–29 | 46.8 | -10.6 | 24% | High | |
| 6 | Oct 10, 2026 | Home | 15–30 | 45.3 | -14.4 | 17% | Medium | |
| 7 | Oct 17, 2026 | Away | 15–31 | 45.8 | -15.8 | 15% | High | |
| 8 | Oct 24, 2026 | Home | 24–27 | 51.6 | -2.9 | 42% | Low | |
| 9 | Nov 7, 2026 | Away | 20–34 | 54.0 | -13.3 | 19% | Medium | |
| 10 | Nov 14, 2026 | Home | 19–27 | 45.5 | -8.3 | 29% | Medium | |
| 11 | Nov 21, 2026 | Away | 18–30 | 47.6 | -12.1 | 21% | Medium | |
| 12 | Nov 28, 2026 | Home | 22–26 | 47.9 | -4.9 | 37% | Medium |
Projection context
These projections reflect the current Rivals Rundown football inputs and are refreshed as the underlying information changes.
Model version 5. RPR, rankings, margins and probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.