ACC · Cardinals · Louisville, KY
Louisville
Your complete Louisville season outlook.
Jeff Brohm and the ACC's second-ranked portal class reload the roster; an unproven quarterback keeps the confidence below the top tier.
Home stadiumL&N Federal Credit Union StadiumRPR rank#28Projected-wins rank#27
Projected wins7.91Most likely: 8 wins · 80% range 7–9
Rundown Power Rating +11.4Neutral-field strength
RPR Rank #28National power position
Schedule Strength Rank#43Opponent difficulty
Projected-Wins Rank #27Strength plus schedule
Market total8.5
Adjusted Edge -0.28
Probability over38%
Market basis12 games
Team profile
RPR and model ratings
- Rundown Power Rating
- +11.4
- National RPR Rank
- #28
- Schedule strength rank
- #43
- Average opponent power
- +4.9
- Offense rating
- 30.7
- Defense rating
- 19.5
- Projected QB
- Lincoln Kienholz
- QB starts
- 0
- QB confidence
- Medium
- Head coach
- Jeff Brohm
- Returning starters
- 8
- Portal rank
- 2
- Roster fragility
- 60.2
Record outcomes
Win distribution
0<1%
1<1%
2<1%
3<1%
41.8%
55.4%
612.0%
719.5%
823.2%
920.3%
1012.1%
114.4%
120.7%
13<1%
Game by game
2026 projected scores and probabilities
Expected scores and margins are model means, not exact-score guarantees.
Each matchup becomes a compact projection card on portrait phones.
| Game | Date | Opponent | Location | Projected score | Projected total | Projected margin | Win probability | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 6, 2026 | Neutral | 24–29 | 52.6 | -5.1 | 37% | Medium | |
| 2 | Sep 11, 2026 | Villanova | Home | 35–16 | 50.9 | +19.8 | 91% | Low |
| 3 | Sep 19, 2026 | Home | 27–24 | 51.4 | +2.6 | 57% | Low | |
| 4 | Sep 26, 2026 | Home | 28–19 | 47.0 | +9.6 | 74% | Medium | |
| 5 | Oct 3, 2026 | Away | 29–25 | 53.3 | +4.1 | 61% | Medium | |
| 6 | Oct 9, 2026 | Home | 27–23 | 50.0 | +4.6 | 62% | Medium | |
| 7 | Oct 17, 2026 | Away | 29–20 | 49.0 | +9.8 | 74% | Medium | |
| 8 | Oct 31, 2026 | Home | 32–16 | 48.1 | +16.1 | 86% | Medium | |
| 9 | Nov 7, 2026 | Away | 27–24 | 51.0 | +3.0 | 58% | Low | |
| 10 | Nov 14, 2026 | Away | 26–21 | 47.4 | +4.7 | 62% | Medium | |
| 11 | Nov 21, 2026 | Home | 30–23 | 52.2 | +7.0 | 68% | Medium | |
| 12 | Nov 28, 2026 | Away | 26–22 | 47.9 | +4.9 | 63% | Medium |
Projection context
These projections reflect the current Rivals Rundown football inputs and are refreshed as the underlying information changes.
Model version 5. RPR, rankings, margins and probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.