SEC · Crimson Tide · Tuscaloosa, AL
Alabama
Your complete Alabama season outlook.
Elite defensive baseline, but replacing Ty Simpson with an unsettled quarterback and only five returning starters raises downside risk.
Home stadiumSaban Field at Bryant-Denny StadiumRPR rank#12Projected-wins rank#21
Projected wins8.11Most likely: 8 wins · 80% range 7–9
Rundown Power Rating +17.9Neutral-field strength
RPR Rank #12National power position
Schedule Strength Rank#5Opponent difficulty
Projected-Wins Rank #21Strength plus schedule
Market total8.5
Adjusted Edge -0.47
Probability over41%
Market basis12 games
Team profile
RPR and model ratings
- Rundown Power Rating
- +17.9
- National RPR Rank
- #12
- Schedule strength rank
- #5
- Average opponent power
- +10.2
- Offense rating
- 30.8
- Defense rating
- 12.5
- Projected QB
- Keelon Russell
- QB starts
- 0
- QB confidence
- Medium
- Head coach
- Kalen DeBoer
- Returning starters
- 5
- Portal rank
- 9
- Roster fragility
- 58.1
Record outcomes
Win distribution
0<1%
1<1%
2<1%
3<1%
41.0%
53.8%
610.2%
718.7%
824.8%
922.6%
1013.2%
114.7%
120.7%
13<1%
Game by game
2026 projected scores and probabilities
Expected scores and margins are model means, not exact-score guarantees.
Each matchup becomes a compact projection card on portrait phones.
| Game | Date | Opponent | Location | Projected score | Projected total | Projected margin | Win probability | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5, 2026 | Home | 34–12 | 46.0 | +21.6 | 92% | Medium | |
| 2 | Sep 12, 2026 | Away | 28–16 | 44.1 | +11.2 | 77% | Medium | |
| 3 | Sep 19, 2026 | Home | 29–17 | 46.2 | +11.5 | 78% | Medium | |
| 4 | Sep 26, 2026 | Home | 27–18 | 45.0 | +8.1 | 71% | Medium | |
| 5 | Oct 3, 2026 | Away | 31–19 | 49.8 | +12.2 | 79% | Medium | |
| 6 | Oct 10, 2026 | Home | 21–26 | 46.8 | -4.9 | 37% | Medium | |
| 7 | Oct 17, 2026 | Away | 27–26 | 52.2 | +0.9 | 52% | Low | |
| 8 | Oct 24, 2026 | Home | 25–24 | 48.3 | +0.6 | 52% | Low | |
| 9 | Nov 7, 2026 | Away | 19–25 | 43.5 | -5.5 | 36% | Medium | |
| 10 | Nov 14, 2026 | Away | 28–21 | 49.8 | +7.1 | 68% | Medium | |
| 11 | Nov 21, 2026 | Chattanooga | Home | 39–8 | 47.0 | +31.3 | 98% | Low |
| 12 | Nov 28, 2026 | Home | 26–18 | 44.2 | +8.3 | 71% | Medium |
Projection context
These projections reflect the current Rivals Rundown football inputs and are refreshed as the underlying information changes.
Model version 5. RPR, rankings, margins and probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.