Sun Belt · Jaguars · Mobile, AL
South Alabama
Your complete South Alabama season outlook.
Bishop Davenport provides experience and the schedule is manageable, while limited top-end defensive continuity prevents a larger projection.
Home stadiumHancock Whitney StadiumRPR rank#116Projected-wins rank#99
Projected wins5.26Most likely: 5 wins · 80% range 4–7
Rundown Power Rating -12.9Neutral-field strength
RPR Rank #116National power position
Schedule Strength Rank#118Opponent difficulty
Projected-Wins Rank #99Strength plus schedule
Market total5.5
Adjusted Edge -0.40
Probability over44%
Market basis12 games
Team profile
RPR and model ratings
- Rundown Power Rating
- -12.9
- National RPR Rank
- #116
- Schedule strength rank
- #118
- Average opponent power
- -10.3
- Offense rating
- 22.9
- Defense rating
- 35.3
- Projected QB
- Bishop Davenport
- QB starts
- 10
- QB confidence
- Medium
- Head coach
- Major Applewhite
- Returning starters
- 5
- Portal rank
- 13
- Roster fragility
- 45.6
Record outcomes
Win distribution
0<1%
10.7%
23.3%
39.9%
418.6%
523.7%
621.4%
713.8%
86.2%
91.9%
10<1%
11<1%
12<1%
13<1%
Game by game
2026 projected scores and probabilities
Expected scores and margins are model means, not exact-score guarantees.
Each matchup becomes a compact projection card on portrait phones.
| Game | Date | Opponent | Location | Projected score | Projected total | Projected margin | Win probability | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5, 2026 | Southeastern Louisiana | Home | 29–26 | 55.5 | +3.4 | 59% | Low |
| 2 | Sep 12, 2026 | Away | 22–33 | 54.8 | -10.5 | 24% | Medium | |
| 3 | Sep 19, 2026 | Home | 26–23 | 48.5 | +2.5 | 57% | Low | |
| 4 | Sep 26, 2026 | Away | 17–36 | 52.4 | -18.9 | 10% | Medium | |
| 5 | Oct 3, 2026 | Home | 35–21 | 55.7 | +13.7 | 82% | Medium | |
| 6 | Oct 8, 2026 | Away | 25–33 | 58.0 | -7.5 | 31% | Medium | |
| 7 | Oct 20, 2026 | Away | 26–36 | 62.5 | -10.0 | 25% | High | |
| 8 | Oct 31, 2026 | Home | 27–29 | 56.1 | -2.8 | 43% | Low | |
| 9 | Nov 7, 2026 | Away | 26–33 | 59.7 | -7.2 | 32% | Medium | |
| 10 | Nov 14, 2026 | Home | 25–31 | 56.4 | -5.5 | 36% | Medium | |
| 11 | Nov 21, 2026 | Away | 33–24 | 57.6 | +8.8 | 72% | Low | |
| 12 | Nov 27, 2026 | Home | 29–28 | 57.0 | +1.6 | 54% | Low |
Projection context
These projections reflect the current Rivals Rundown football inputs and are refreshed as the underlying information changes.
Model version 5. RPR, rankings, margins and probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.