SEC · Bulldogs · Starkville, MS
Mississippi State
Your complete Mississippi State season outlook.
Nine returning starters and positive portal movement improve the floor, but passing consistency and top-end defensive talent remain concerns.
Home stadiumDavis Wade StadiumRPR rank#51Projected-wins rank#113
Projected wins4.36Most likely: 4 wins · 80% range 3–5
Rundown Power Rating +4.3Neutral-field strength
RPR Rank #51National power position
Schedule Strength Rank#9Opponent difficulty
Projected-Wins Rank #113Strength plus schedule
Market total4.5
Adjusted Edge -0.32
Probability over44%
Market basis12 games
Team profile
RPR and model ratings
- Rundown Power Rating
- +4.3
- National RPR Rank
- #51
- Schedule strength rank
- #9
- Average opponent power
- +9.2
- Offense rating
- 30.3
- Defense rating
- 26.6
- Projected QB
- Kamario Taylor
- QB starts
- 2
- QB confidence
- High
- Head coach
- Jeff Lebby
- Returning starters
- 9
- Portal rank
- 16
- Roster fragility
- 42.8
Record outcomes
Win distribution
0<1%
1<1%
27.1%
320.3%
428.5%
523.9%
613.2%
75.0%
81.2%
9<1%
10<1%
11<1%
12<1%
13<1%
Game by game
2026 projected scores and probabilities
Expected scores and margins are model means, not exact-score guarantees.
Each matchup becomes a compact projection card on portrait phones.
| Game | Date | Opponent | Location | Projected score | Projected total | Projected margin | Win probability | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5, 2026 | Home | 43–12 | 54.9 | +30.8 | 98% | Medium | |
| 2 | Sep 12, 2026 | Away | 23–27 | 50.7 | -4.0 | 39% | Medium | |
| 3 | Sep 19, 2026 | Away | 21–32 | 52.6 | -11.2 | 23% | High | |
| 4 | Sep 26, 2026 | Home | 23–31 | 53.5 | -8.2 | 29% | Medium | |
| 5 | Oct 3, 2026 | Home | 19–31 | 49.8 | -12.2 | 21% | Medium | |
| 6 | Oct 17, 2026 | Away | 15–36 | 51.1 | -20.1 | 9% | Medium | |
| 7 | Oct 24, 2026 | Home | 20–32 | 51.5 | -11.9 | 21% | High | |
| 8 | Oct 31, 2026 | Away | 16–39 | 54.7 | -23.3 | 6% | High | |
| 9 | Nov 7, 2026 | Home | 27–30 | 57.5 | -3.3 | 41% | Low | |
| 10 | Nov 14, 2026 | Home | 23–29 | 51.8 | -6.0 | 34% | Medium | |
| 11 | Nov 21, 2026 | Tennessee Tech | Home | 39–15 | 54.7 | +24.0 | 95% | Medium |
| 12 | Nov 27, 2026 | Away | 21–36 | 56.4 | -15.1 | 16% | High |
Projection context
These projections reflect the current Rivals Rundown football inputs and are refreshed as the underlying information changes.
Model version 5. RPR, rankings, margins and probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.