American · Pirates · Greenville, NC
East Carolina
Your complete East Carolina season outlook.
Blake Harrell and a favorable league schedule provide stability, while only three returning starters and an unresolved pocket-passer battle limit confidence.
Home stadiumBagwell Field at Dowdy-Ficklen StadiumRPR rank#77Projected-wins rank#36
Projected wins7.63Most likely: 8 wins · 80% range 6–9
Rundown Power Rating -1.9Neutral-field strength
RPR Rank #77National power position
Schedule Strength Rank#99Opponent difficulty
Projected-Wins Rank #36Strength plus schedule
Market total7.5
Adjusted Edge +0.26
Probability over54%
Market basis12 games
Team profile
RPR and model ratings
- Rundown Power Rating
- -1.9
- National RPR Rank
- #77
- Schedule strength rank
- #99
- Average opponent power
- -8.0
- Offense rating
- 24.1
- Defense rating
- 25.9
- Projected QB
- Mitch Griffis / Emory Williams
- QB starts
- 7
- QB confidence
- Low-Medium
- Head coach
- Blake Harrell
- Returning starters
- 3
- Portal rank
- 8
- Roster fragility
- 68.9
Record outcomes
Win distribution
0<1%
1<1%
2<1%
3<1%
42.0%
56.3%
614.2%
722.6%
824.9%
918.7%
108.6%
112.1%
12<1%
13<1%
Game by game
2026 projected scores and probabilities
Expected scores and margins are model means, not exact-score guarantees.
Each matchup becomes a compact projection card on portrait phones.
| Game | Date | Opponent | Location | Projected score | Projected total | Projected margin | Win probability | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5, 2026 | Away | 12–34 | 46.0 | -21.6 | 8% | Medium | |
| 2 | Sep 12, 2026 | Home | 32–20 | 52.3 | +12.4 | 80% | Low | |
| 3 | Sep 19, 2026 | Away | 24–23 | 47.2 | +0.9 | 53% | Low | |
| 4 | Sep 26, 2026 | NC Central | Home | 32–19 | 50.8 | +12.5 | 80% | Low |
| 5 | Oct 10, 2026 | Home | 32–17 | 49.3 | +14.6 | 83% | Medium | |
| 6 | Oct 15, 2026 | Away | 34–21 | 54.4 | +13.3 | 81% | Low | |
| 7 | Oct 22, 2026 | Away | 26–29 | 54.5 | -3.2 | 41% | Low | |
| 8 | Oct 31, 2026 | Home | 32–23 | 54.9 | +9.0 | 73% | Medium | |
| 9 | Nov 6, 2026 | Home | 29–26 | 54.2 | +2.9 | 58% | Low | |
| 10 | Nov 14, 2026 | Away | 39–12 | 51.2 | +26.6 | 96% | Low | |
| 11 | Nov 21, 2026 | Away | 24–27 | 51.0 | -2.4 | 44% | Low | |
| 12 | Nov 27, 2026 | Home | 32–25 | 56.7 | +7.1 | 68% | Medium |
Projection context
These projections reflect the current Rivals Rundown football inputs and are refreshed as the underlying information changes.
Model version 5. RPR, rankings, margins and probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.