ACC · Seminoles · Tallahassee, FL
Florida State
Your complete Florida State season outlook.
Ashton Daniels and a positive portal class support a rebound, though six returning starters and Alabama plus Florida cap the schedule upside.
Home stadiumBobby Bowden Field at Doak S. Campbell StadiumRPR rank#36Projected-wins rank#67
Projected wins6.53Most likely: 7 wins · 80% range 5–8
Rundown Power Rating +9.1Neutral-field strength
RPR Rank #36National power position
Schedule Strength Rank#29Opponent difficulty
Projected-Wins Rank #67Strength plus schedule
Market total6.5
Adjusted Edge +0.47
Probability over51%
Market basis12 games
Team profile
RPR and model ratings
- Rundown Power Rating
- +9.1
- National RPR Rank
- #36
- Schedule strength rank
- #29
- Average opponent power
- +6.6
- Offense rating
- 29.8
- Defense rating
- 20.5
- Projected QB
- Ashton Daniels
- QB starts
- 22
- QB confidence
- Medium
- Head coach
- Mike Norvell
- Returning starters
- 6
- Portal rank
- 5
- Roster fragility
- 38.4
Record outcomes
Win distribution
0<1%
1<1%
2<1%
32.0%
47.0%
516.0%
623.8%
723.9%
816.7%
97.6%
102.1%
11<1%
12<1%
13<1%
Game by game
2026 projected scores and probabilities
Expected scores and margins are model means, not exact-score guarantees.
Each matchup becomes a compact projection card on portrait phones.
| Game | Date | Opponent | Location | Projected score | Projected total | Projected margin | Win probability | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29, 2026 | Home | 39–11 | 50.1 | +27.8 | 97% | High | |
| 2 | Sep 7, 2026 | Home | 27–26 | 51.5 | +0.4 | 51% | Low | |
| 3 | Sep 19, 2026 | Away | 17–29 | 46.2 | -11.5 | 22% | Medium | |
| 4 | Sep 26, 2026 | Central Arkansas | Home | 37–14 | 51.0 | +23.5 | 94% | Medium |
| 5 | Oct 3, 2026 | Home | 26–22 | 47.8 | +4.6 | 62% | Medium | |
| 6 | Oct 9, 2026 | Away | 23–27 | 50.0 | -4.6 | 38% | Medium | |
| 7 | Oct 17, 2026 | Away | 17–32 | 49.0 | -15.8 | 15% | High | |
| 8 | Oct 31, 2026 | Home | 23–24 | 47.8 | -1.0 | 47% | Low | |
| 9 | Nov 7, 2026 | Away | 30–22 | 51.5 | +8.0 | 70% | Medium | |
| 10 | Nov 13, 2026 | Away | 26–27 | 52.3 | -0.7 | 48% | Low | |
| 11 | Nov 21, 2026 | Home | 30–23 | 53.4 | +6.6 | 67% | Medium | |
| 12 | Nov 27, 2026 | Home | 22–26 | 47.6 | -3.7 | 40% | Low |
Projection context
These projections reflect the current Rivals Rundown football inputs and are refreshed as the underlying information changes.
Model version 5. RPR, rankings, margins and probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.