Sun Belt · Trojans · Troy, AL
Troy
Your complete Troy season outlook.
Goose Crowder and a strong defensive baseline make Troy the West favorite, although only five starters return and snapback is below 50%.
Home stadiumVeterans Memorial Stadium at Larry Blakeney FieldRPR rank#89Projected-wins rank#42
Projected wins7.47Most likely: 8 wins · 80% range 6–9
Rundown Power Rating -5.2Neutral-field strength
RPR Rank #89National power position
Schedule Strength Rank#122Opponent difficulty
Projected-Wins Rank #42Strength plus schedule
Market total6.5
Adjusted Edge +0.76
Probability over75%
Market basis12 games
Team profile
RPR and model ratings
- Rundown Power Rating
- -5.2
- National RPR Rank
- #89
- Schedule strength rank
- #122
- Average opponent power
- -11.0
- Offense rating
- 24.0
- Defense rating
- 29.6
- Projected QB
- Goose Crowder
- QB starts
- 10
- QB confidence
- High
- Head coach
- Gerad Parker
- Returning starters
- 5
- Portal rank
- 12
- Roster fragility
- 54.4
Record outcomes
Win distribution
0<1%
1<1%
2<1%
3<1%
42.1%
57.0%
615.8%
724.3%
825.1%
916.8%
106.8%
111.4%
12<1%
13<1%
Game by game
2026 projected scores and probabilities
Expected scores and margins are model means, not exact-score guarantees.
Each matchup becomes a compact projection card on portrait phones.
| Game | Date | Opponent | Location | Projected score | Projected total | Projected margin | Win probability | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5, 2026 | Home | 39–16 | 54.2 | +23.1 | 94% | Medium | |
| 2 | Sep 12, 2026 | Alabama State | Home | 34–19 | 52.8 | +15.1 | 84% | Medium |
| 3 | Sep 19, 2026 | Away | 15–37 | 51.6 | -22.0 | 7% | Medium | |
| 4 | Sep 26, 2026 | Away | 27–28 | 54.3 | -1.0 | 47% | Low | |
| 5 | Oct 6, 2026 | Home | 38–17 | 54.9 | +20.9 | 92% | Low | |
| 6 | Oct 17, 2026 | Away | 29–28 | 57.0 | +1.3 | 53% | Low | |
| 7 | Oct 24, 2026 | Home | 37–16 | 53.1 | +20.9 | 92% | Medium | |
| 8 | Oct 29, 2026 | Away | 23–29 | 52.7 | -6.1 | 34% | Medium | |
| 9 | Nov 7, 2026 | Home | 29–24 | 53.4 | +5.0 | 63% | Medium | |
| 10 | Nov 14, 2026 | Away | 31–25 | 56.4 | +5.5 | 64% | Medium | |
| 11 | Nov 21, 2026 | Home | 30–24 | 54.7 | +5.8 | 65% | Medium | |
| 12 | Nov 28, 2026 | Away | 29–28 | 55.4 | +0.3 | 51% | Low |
Projection context
These projections reflect the current Rivals Rundown football inputs and are refreshed as the underlying information changes.
Model version 5. RPR, rankings, margins and probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.