American · Roadrunners · San Antonio, TX
UTSA
Your complete UTSA season outlook.
Owen McCown provides the conference's most established passing baseline, but only two defensive starters return and the road schedule is demanding.
Home stadiumAlamodomeRPR rank#73Projected-wins rank#40
Projected wins7.52Most likely: 8 wins · 80% range 6–9
Rundown Power Rating -1.3Neutral-field strength
RPR Rank #73National power position
Schedule Strength Rank#83Opponent difficulty
Projected-Wins Rank #40Strength plus schedule
Market total7.5
Adjusted Edge -0.10
Probability over52%
Market basis12 games
Team profile
RPR and model ratings
- Rundown Power Rating
- -1.3
- National RPR Rank
- #73
- Schedule strength rank
- #83
- Average opponent power
- -6.3
- Offense rating
- 29.8
- Defense rating
- 31.3
- Projected QB
- Owen McCown
- QB starts
- 26
- QB confidence
- High
- Head coach
- Jeff Traylor
- Returning starters
- 8
- Portal rank
- 9
- Roster fragility
- 30.9
Record outcomes
Win distribution
0<1%
1<1%
2<1%
3<1%
42.1%
56.8%
615.2%
723.7%
825.1%
917.7%
107.5%
111.5%
12<1%
13<1%
Game by game
2026 projected scores and probabilities
Expected scores and margins are model means, not exact-score guarantees.
Each matchup becomes a compact projection card on portrait phones.
| Game | Date | Opponent | Location | Projected score | Projected total | Projected margin | Win probability | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5, 2026 | UTRGV | Home | 42–15 | 57.1 | +26.8 | 96% | Medium |
| 2 | Sep 12, 2026 | Away | 35–33 | 67.9 | +1.7 | 55% | Low | |
| 3 | Sep 19, 2026 | Away | 14–43 | 57.2 | -29.6 | 2% | High | |
| 4 | Sep 26, 2026 | Home | 31–22 | 53.4 | +9.2 | 73% | Medium | |
| 5 | Oct 3, 2026 | Away | 33–22 | 55.6 | +10.7 | 76% | High | |
| 6 | Oct 8, 2026 | Home | 32–29 | 60.6 | +3.1 | 58% | Low | |
| 7 | Oct 17, 2026 | Home | 29–30 | 58.5 | -0.3 | 49% | Low | |
| 8 | Oct 24, 2026 | Away | 29–28 | 56.5 | +0.9 | 52% | Low | |
| 9 | Nov 5, 2026 | Away | 33–30 | 63.2 | +2.8 | 57% | Low | |
| 10 | Nov 14, 2026 | Home | 37–24 | 61.3 | +12.4 | 80% | Medium | |
| 11 | Nov 21, 2026 | Away | 38–23 | 60.8 | +14.5 | 83% | Medium | |
| 12 | Nov 27, 2026 | Home | 34–26 | 59.0 | +8.0 | 70% | Medium |
Projection context
These projections reflect the current Rivals Rundown football inputs and are refreshed as the underlying information changes.
Model version 5. RPR, rankings, margins and probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.