Pac-12 · Bobcats · San Marcos, TX Flex schedule

Texas State

Your complete Texas State season outlook.

Brad Jackson gives Texas State the conference's most dynamic quarterback and a high offensive ceiling; the defense remains the clear limiting unit.

Home stadiumUFCU StadiumRPR rank#86Projected-wins rank#95

Open in Game Lab

Projected wins5.46Most likely: 5 wins · 80% range 4–7

Rundown Power Rating -4.9Neutral-field strength

RPR Rank #86National power position

Schedule Strength Rank#73Opponent difficulty

Projected-Wins Rank #95Strength plus schedule

Market total6.5

Adjusted Edge -1.25

Probability over15%

Market basis11 games

2026 Pac-12 flex schedule

Full-season projections include a modeled Week 13 flex matchup. Market comparisons use only the 11 currently defined games. The modeled flex game contributes 0.54 expected wins to the full-season projection.

Team profile

RPR and model ratings

Rundown Power Rating: -4.9
National RPR Rank: #86
Schedule strength rank: #73
Average opponent power: -2.3
Offense rating: 32.5
Defense rating: 37.7
Projected QB: Brad Jackson
QB starts: 12
QB confidence: High
Head coach: GJ Kinne
Returning starters: 9
Portal rank: 6
Roster fragility: 40.6

Record outcomes

Win distribution

0<1%

10.5%

22.8%

38.2%

416.5%

522.9%

622.6%

716.0%

87.6%

92.4%

10<1%

11<1%

12<1%

13<1%

Game by game

2026 projected scores and probabilities

Expected scores and margins are model means, not exact-score guarantees.

Each matchup becomes a compact projection card on portrait phones.

Game	Date	Opponent	Location	Projected score	Projected total	Projected margin	Win probability	Confidence
1	Sep 5, 2026	Texas Open matchup in Game Lab →	Away	14–48	62.5	-33.5	1%	High
2	Sep 12, 2026	UTSA Open matchup in Game Lab →	Home	33–35	67.9	-1.7	45%	Low
3	Sep 19, 2026	North Texas Open matchup in Game Lab →	Home	38–29	66.7	+9.6	74%	Medium
4	Sep 26, 2026	Incarnate Word	Home	34–29	62.4	+4.7	62%	Medium
5	Oct 3, 2026	San Diego State Open matchup in Game Lab →	Away	27–33	60.0	-6.4	34%	Medium
6	Oct 17, 2026	Colorado State Open matchup in Game Lab →	Home	33–26	58.6	+6.6	67%	Medium
7	Oct 24, 2026	Utah State Open matchup in Game Lab →	Away	32–33	63.9	-0.0	50%	Low
8	Oct 31, 2026	Boise State Open matchup in Game Lab →	Away	23–40	63.0	-16.4	14%	High
9	Nov 7, 2026	Oregon State Open matchup in Game Lab →	Away	29–30	59.7	-1.1	47%	Low
10	Nov 14, 2026	Fresno State Open matchup in Game Lab →	Home	30–29	57.2	+0.1	50%	Low
11	Nov 21, 2026	Washington State Open matchup in Game Lab →	Away	28–30	58.6	-1.7	45%	Low
Week 13 FlexProjected	Nov 28, 2026	Colorado StateFlexOpen matchup in Game Lab →	Away	30–29	58.6	+1.5	54%	Low

Projection context

These projections reflect the current Rivals Rundown football inputs and are refreshed as the underlying information changes.

Model version 5. RPR, rankings, margins and probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.