Big Ten · Buckeyes · Columbus, OH
Ohio State
Your complete Ohio State season outlook.
Julian Sayin, eight returning offensive starters and elite portal quality support the nation's highest rating despite coordinator change.
Home stadiumOhio StadiumRPR rank#1Projected-wins rank#3
Projected wins10.37Most likely: 11 wins · 80% range 9–11
Rundown Power Rating +32.8Neutral-field strength
RPR Rank #1National power position
Schedule Strength Rank#10Opponent difficulty
Projected-Wins Rank #3Strength plus schedule
Market total9.5
Adjusted Edge +0.60
Probability over79%
Market basis12 games
Team profile
RPR and model ratings
- Rundown Power Rating
- +32.8
- National RPR Rank
- #1
- Schedule strength rank
- #10
- Average opponent power
- +9.0
- Offense rating
- 41.2
- Defense rating
- 8.6
- Projected QB
- Julian Sayin
- QB starts
- 13
- QB confidence
- High
- Head coach
- Ryan Day
- Returning starters
- 11
- Portal rank
- 2
- Roster fragility
- 25.7
Record outcomes
Win distribution
0<1%
1<1%
2<1%
3<1%
4<1%
5<1%
6<1%
70.8%
84.5%
915.2%
1030.6%
1133.3%
1215.4%
13<1%
Game by game
2026 projected scores and probabilities
Expected scores and margins are model means, not exact-score guarantees.
Each matchup becomes a compact projection card on portrait phones.
| Game | Date | Opponent | Location | Projected score | Projected total | Projected margin | Win probability | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5, 2026 | Home | 46–4 | 49.1 | +42.0 | >99% | High | |
| 2 | Sep 12, 2026 | Away | 28–22 | 50.7 | +5.8 | 65% | Medium | |
| 3 | Sep 19, 2026 | Home | 46–4 | 50.5 | +42.0 | >99% | High | |
| 4 | Sep 26, 2026 | Home | 39–13 | 52.0 | +26.3 | 96% | High | |
| 5 | Oct 3, 2026 | Away | 32–16 | 48.0 | +16.9 | 87% | High | |
| 6 | Oct 10, 2026 | Home | 40–9 | 48.9 | +30.7 | 98% | High | |
| 7 | Oct 17, 2026 | Away | 28–23 | 50.3 | +4.8 | 63% | Medium | |
| 8 | Oct 31, 2026 | Away | 34–20 | 54.3 | +13.5 | 82% | High | |
| 9 | Nov 7, 2026 | Home | 29–22 | 51.6 | +6.9 | 68% | Medium | |
| 10 | Nov 14, 2026 | Home | 38–9 | 46.8 | +29.4 | 97% | High | |
| 11 | Nov 21, 2026 | Away | 36–14 | 50.1 | +21.7 | 93% | High | |
| 12 | Nov 28, 2026 | Home | 34–15 | 49.1 | +18.3 | 89% | High |
Projection context
These projections reflect the current Rivals Rundown football inputs and are refreshed as the underlying information changes.
Model version 5. RPR, rankings, margins and probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.