ACC · Eagles · Chestnut Hill, MA
Boston College
Your complete Boston College season outlook.
Bill O'Brien and a veteran transfer quarterback help stabilize a roster with only five returning starters; the road-heavy ACC slate suppresses the ceiling.
Home stadiumAlumni StadiumRPR rank#74Projected-wins rank#119
Projected wins3.86Most likely: 4 wins · 80% range 3–5
Rundown Power Rating -1.3Neutral-field strength
RPR Rank #74National power position
Schedule Strength Rank#26Opponent difficulty
Projected-Wins Rank #119Strength plus schedule
Market total3.5
Adjusted Edge +0.44
Probability over58%
Market basis12 games
Team profile
RPR and model ratings
- Rundown Power Rating
- -1.3
- National RPR Rank
- #74
- Schedule strength rank
- #26
- Average opponent power
- +7.2
- Offense rating
- 25.5
- Defense rating
- 27.3
- Projected QB
- Mason McKenzie
- QB starts
- 12
- QB confidence
- Low-Medium
- Head coach
- Bill O'Brien
- Returning starters
- 5
- Portal rank
- 13
- Roster fragility
- 45.3
Record outcomes
Win distribution
0<1%
14.1%
213.5%
323.9%
425.9%
518.8%
69.3%
73.2%
80.7%
9<1%
10<1%
11<1%
12<1%
13<1%
Game by game
2026 projected scores and probabilities
Expected scores and margins are model means, not exact-score guarantees.
Each matchup becomes a compact projection card on portrait phones.
| Game | Date | Opponent | Location | Projected score | Projected total | Projected margin | Win probability | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5, 2026 | Away | 23–31 | 54.1 | -7.8 | 30% | Medium | |
| 2 | Sep 11, 2026 | Home | 28–29 | 56.4 | -0.9 | 48% | Low | |
| 3 | Sep 19, 2026 | Maine | Home | 34–18 | 52.4 | +16.0 | 86% | Medium |
| 4 | Sep 26, 2026 | Home | 22–31 | 52.8 | -9.1 | 27% | Medium | |
| 5 | Oct 3, 2026 | Away | 19–34 | 52.9 | -15.5 | 15% | High | |
| 6 | Oct 17, 2026 | Home | 24–30 | 53.7 | -5.7 | 35% | Medium | |
| 7 | Oct 24, 2026 | Away | 21–31 | 52.5 | -10.0 | 25% | Medium | |
| 8 | Oct 31, 2026 | Away | 24–34 | 57.1 | -10.1 | 25% | Medium | |
| 9 | Nov 7, 2026 | Home | 22–30 | 51.5 | -8.0 | 30% | Medium | |
| 10 | Nov 14, 2026 | Away | 12–42 | 54.1 | -30.0 | 2% | High | |
| 11 | Nov 21, 2026 | Home | 26–24 | 50.5 | +2.3 | 56% | Low | |
| 12 | Nov 28, 2026 | Away | 12–38 | 50.4 | -25.9 | 4% | High |
Projection context
These projections reflect the current Rivals Rundown football inputs and are refreshed as the underlying information changes.
Model version 5. RPR, rankings, margins and probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.