ACC · Mustangs · University Park, TX
SMU
Your complete SMU season outlook.
Kevin Jennings, Rhett Lashlee and strong offensive continuity support a high floor, while road games at Florida State, Louisville and Notre Dame limit the top end.
Home stadiumGerald J. Ford StadiumRPR rank#27Projected-wins rank#22
Projected wins8.07Most likely: 8 wins · 80% range 7–9
Rundown Power Rating +11.4Neutral-field strength
RPR Rank #27National power position
Schedule Strength Rank#54Opponent difficulty
Projected-Wins Rank #22Strength plus schedule
Market total8.5
Adjusted Edge -0.55
Probability over40%
Market basis12 games
Team profile
RPR and model ratings
- Rundown Power Rating
- +11.4
- National RPR Rank
- #27
- Schedule strength rank
- #54
- Average opponent power
- +3.4
- Offense rating
- 32.2
- Defense rating
- 20.6
- Projected QB
- Kevin Jennings
- QB starts
- 30
- QB confidence
- High
- Head coach
- Rhett Lashlee
- Returning starters
- 8
- Portal rank
- 6
- Roster fragility
- 29.2
Record outcomes
Win distribution
0<1%
1<1%
2<1%
3<1%
40.8%
53.3%
69.9%
719.7%
826.5%
923.3%
1012.6%
113.5%
12<1%
13<1%
Game by game
2026 projected scores and probabilities
Expected scores and margins are model means, not exact-score guarantees.
Each matchup becomes a compact projection card on portrait phones.
| Game | Date | Opponent | Location | Projected score | Projected total | Projected margin | Win probability | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 7, 2026 | Away | 26–27 | 51.5 | -0.4 | 49% | Low | |
| 2 | Sep 12, 2026 | UC Davis | Home | 37–15 | 52.4 | +22.0 | 93% | Medium |
| 3 | Sep 19, 2026 | Away | 24–27 | 51.4 | -2.6 | 43% | Low | |
| 4 | Sep 26, 2026 | Home | 42–10 | 52.2 | +32.3 | 98% | Medium | |
| 5 | Oct 3, 2026 | Home | 34–19 | 52.9 | +15.5 | 85% | High | |
| 6 | Oct 17, 2026 | Home | 28–21 | 49.2 | +7.2 | 68% | Medium | |
| 7 | Oct 24, 2026 | Home | 32–22 | 53.8 | +10.1 | 75% | High | |
| 8 | Oct 31, 2026 | Away | 30–20 | 50.5 | +9.7 | 74% | Medium | |
| 9 | Nov 6, 2026 | Home | 28–25 | 52.8 | +3.6 | 59% | Low | |
| 10 | Nov 14, 2026 | Home | 29–19 | 48.4 | +9.8 | 74% | Medium | |
| 11 | Nov 21, 2026 | Away | 18–36 | 54.1 | -17.3 | 12% | High | |
| 12 | Nov 28, 2026 | Away | 30–19 | 49.5 | +10.5 | 76% | High |
Projection context
These projections reflect the current Rivals Rundown football inputs and are refreshed as the underlying information changes.
Model version 5. RPR, rankings, margins and probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.