ACC · Blue Devils · Durham, NC
Duke
Your complete Duke season outlook.
Walker Eget brings experience, but modest returning production and a low-rated portal class leave the defense and depth vulnerable.
Home stadiumWallace Wade StadiumRPR rank#44Projected-wins rank#68
Projected wins6.40Most likely: 6 wins · 80% range 5–8
Rundown Power Rating +5.7Neutral-field strength
RPR Rank #44National power position
Schedule Strength Rank#47Opponent difficulty
Projected-Wins Rank #68Strength plus schedule
Market total5.5
Adjusted Edge +0.74
Probability over71%
Market basis12 games
Team profile
RPR and model ratings
- Rundown Power Rating
- +5.7
- National RPR Rank
- #44
- Schedule strength rank
- #47
- Average opponent power
- +4.4
- Offense rating
- 32.7
- Defense rating
- 27.5
- Projected QB
- Walker Eget
- QB starts
- 18
- QB confidence
- Low-Medium
- Head coach
- Manny Diaz
- Returning starters
- 7
- Portal rank
- 14
- Roster fragility
- 45.0
Record outcomes
Win distribution
0<1%
1<1%
20.6%
32.8%
48.4%
516.8%
623.6%
722.9%
815.5%
97.0%
102.0%
11<1%
12<1%
13<1%
Game by game
2026 projected scores and probabilities
Expected scores and margins are model means, not exact-score guarantees.
Each matchup becomes a compact projection card on portrait phones.
| Game | Date | Opponent | Location | Projected score | Projected total | Projected margin | Win probability | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5, 2026 | Home | 34–21 | 55.9 | +13.0 | 81% | Medium | |
| 2 | Sep 12, 2026 | Away | 26–32 | 58.0 | -6.2 | 34% | Medium | |
| 3 | Sep 19, 2026 | Home | 32–22 | 53.7 | +10.5 | 76% | High | |
| 4 | Sep 26, 2026 | William & Mary | Home | 37–20 | 56.6 | +17.0 | 87% | Medium |
| 5 | Oct 10, 2026 | Away | 27–30 | 56.7 | -2.6 | 43% | Low | |
| 6 | Oct 17, 2026 | Home | 29–24 | 53.0 | +4.5 | 62% | Medium | |
| 7 | Oct 23, 2026 | Away | 25–28 | 53.4 | -3.3 | 41% | Low | |
| 8 | Oct 31, 2026 | Home | 34–24 | 57.1 | +10.1 | 75% | Medium | |
| 9 | Nov 7, 2026 | Away | 29–30 | 59.0 | -1.7 | 45% | Low | |
| 10 | Nov 14, 2026 | Away | 17–37 | 54.6 | -19.8 | 9% | High | |
| 11 | Nov 20, 2026 | Home | 24–29 | 53.3 | -5.2 | 36% | Medium | |
| 12 | Nov 28, 2026 | Away | 26–27 | 52.6 | -0.1 | 50% | Low |
Projection context
These projections reflect the current Rivals Rundown football inputs and are refreshed as the underlying information changes.
Model version 5. RPR, rankings, margins and probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.