Big 12 · Cougars · Provo, UT
BYU
Your complete BYU season outlook.
Eleven returning starters, quarterback continuity and stable development infrastructure create a reliable floor.
Home stadiumLaVell Edwards StadiumRPR rank#14Projected-wins rank#9
Projected wins9.11Most likely: 9 wins · 80% range 8–10
Rundown Power Rating +16.8Neutral-field strength
RPR Rank #14National power position
Schedule Strength Rank#53Opponent difficulty
Projected-Wins Rank #9Strength plus schedule
Market total8.5
Adjusted Edge +0.44
Probability over69%
Market basis12 games
Team profile
RPR and model ratings
- Rundown Power Rating
- +16.8
- National RPR Rank
- #14
- Schedule strength rank
- #53
- Average opponent power
- +3.4
- Offense rating
- 33.9
- Defense rating
- 17.7
- Projected QB
- Bear Bachmeier
- QB starts
- 14
- QB confidence
- High
- Head coach
- Kalani Sitake
- Returning starters
- 11
- Portal rank
- 6
- Roster fragility
- 22.5
Record outcomes
Win distribution
0<1%
1<1%
2<1%
3<1%
4<1%
50.6%
62.8%
78.8%
819.1%
927.8%
1025.3%
1112.9%
122.6%
13<1%
Game by game
2026 projected scores and probabilities
Expected scores and margins are model means, not exact-score guarantees.
Each matchup becomes a compact projection card on portrait phones.
| Game | Date | Opponent | Location | Projected score | Projected total | Projected margin | Win probability | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5, 2026 | Utah Tech | Home | 47–5 | 51.7 | +42.0 | >99% | Medium |
| 2 | Sep 12, 2026 | Home | 30–22 | 52.1 | +8.3 | 71% | Medium | |
| 3 | Sep 19, 2026 | Away | 35–13 | 48.1 | +22.4 | 93% | Medium | |
| 4 | Oct 3, 2026 | Away | 29–24 | 52.5 | +4.9 | 63% | Medium | |
| 5 | Oct 9, 2026 | Home | 34–14 | 48.1 | +19.5 | 90% | Medium | |
| 6 | Oct 17, 2026 | Home | 23–30 | 53.5 | -6.8 | 33% | Medium | |
| 7 | Oct 24, 2026 | Away | 30–19 | 48.8 | +10.7 | 76% | High | |
| 8 | Oct 31, 2026 | Home | 31–19 | 50.2 | +12.7 | 80% | High | |
| 9 | Nov 7, 2026 | Away | 28–25 | 53.1 | +2.8 | 57% | Low | |
| 10 | Nov 14, 2026 | Home | 36–20 | 56.5 | +16.0 | 86% | High | |
| 11 | Nov 21, 2026 | Away | 32–21 | 53.0 | +11.4 | 78% | High | |
| 12 | Nov 28, 2026 | Home | 35–19 | 53.4 | +15.7 | 85% | High |
Projection context
These projections reflect the current Rivals Rundown football inputs and are refreshed as the underlying information changes.
Model version 5. RPR, rankings, margins and probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.