Big 12 · Horned Frogs · Fort Worth, TX
TCU
Your complete TCU season outlook.
Nine returning starters and proven skill talent offset the competition jump for an experienced Ivy League quarterback.
Home stadiumAmon G. Carter StadiumRPR rank#33Projected-wins rank#49
Projected wins7.25Most likely: 7 wins · 80% range 6–9
Rundown Power Rating +9.7Neutral-field strength
RPR Rank #33National power position
Schedule Strength Rank#44Opponent difficulty
Projected-Wins Rank #49Strength plus schedule
Market total7.5
Adjusted Edge +0.04
Probability over44%
Market basis12 games
Team profile
RPR and model ratings
- Rundown Power Rating
- +9.7
- National RPR Rank
- #33
- Schedule strength rank
- #44
- Average opponent power
- +4.8
- Offense rating
- 31.5
- Defense rating
- 21.7
- Projected QB
- Jaden Craig
- QB starts
- 23
- QB confidence
- Medium-High
- Head coach
- Sonny Dykes
- Returning starters
- 9
- Portal rank
- 10
- Roster fragility
- 21.2
Record outcomes
Win distribution
0<1%
1<1%
2<1%
30.6%
43.0%
58.9%
618.3%
725.0%
823.3%
914.1%
105.4%
111.2%
12<1%
13<1%
Game by game
2026 projected scores and probabilities
Expected scores and margins are model means, not exact-score guarantees.
Each matchup becomes a compact projection card on portrait phones.
| Game | Date | Opponent | Location | Projected score | Projected total | Projected margin | Win probability | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29, 2026 | Neutral | 27–22 | 49.1 | +5.4 | 64% | Medium | |
| 2 | Sep 12, 2026 | Grambling State | Home | 42–11 | 52.6 | +30.9 | 98% | Medium |
| 3 | Sep 19, 2026 | Home | 38–18 | 55.2 | +20.2 | 91% | High | |
| 4 | Sep 26, 2026 | Away | 27–23 | 49.7 | +4.5 | 62% | Medium | |
| 5 | Oct 3, 2026 | Home | 24–29 | 52.5 | -4.9 | 37% | Medium | |
| 6 | Oct 17, 2026 | Away | 30–27 | 57.4 | +3.5 | 59% | Low | |
| 7 | Oct 24, 2026 | Home | 32–20 | 52.4 | +12.3 | 79% | High | |
| 8 | Oct 31, 2026 | Home | 32–22 | 54.0 | +9.1 | 73% | Medium | |
| 9 | Nov 6, 2026 | Away | 25–28 | 53.1 | -3.8 | 40% | Low | |
| 10 | Nov 14, 2026 | Home | 28–27 | 55.1 | +1.7 | 55% | Low | |
| 11 | Nov 21, 2026 | Home | 28–27 | 54.1 | +0.6 | 52% | Low | |
| 12 | Nov 26, 2026 | Away | 18–34 | 51.7 | -15.3 | 15% | High |
Projection context
These projections reflect the current Rivals Rundown football inputs and are refreshed as the underlying information changes.
Model version 5. RPR, rankings, margins and probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.