Big 12 · Wildcats · Tucson, AZ
Arizona
Your complete Arizona season outlook.
Multi-year Power Four quarterback and continuity raise the floor; defensive NFL losses keep the adjustment modest.
Home stadiumArizona StadiumRPR rank#29Projected-wins rank#34
Projected wins7.76Most likely: 8 wins · 80% range 7–9
Rundown Power Rating +10.9Neutral-field strength
RPR Rank #29National power position
Schedule Strength Rank#51Opponent difficulty
Projected-Wins Rank #34Strength plus schedule
Market total7.5
Adjusted Edge +0.39
Probability over58%
Market basis12 games
Team profile
RPR and model ratings
- Rundown Power Rating
- +10.9
- National RPR Rank
- #29
- Schedule strength rank
- #51
- Average opponent power
- +3.8
- Offense rating
- 32.0
- Defense rating
- 20.7
- Projected QB
- Noah Fifita
- QB starts
- 34
- QB confidence
- High
- Head coach
- Brent Brennan
- Returning starters
- 8
- Portal rank
- 11
- Roster fragility
- 19.9
Record outcomes
Win distribution
0<1%
1<1%
2<1%
3<1%
41.2%
54.9%
612.9%
722.9%
826.7%
920.0%
109.0%
112.1%
12<1%
13<1%
Game by game
2026 projected scores and probabilities
Expected scores and margins are model means, not exact-score guarantees.
Each matchup becomes a compact projection card on portrait phones.
| Game | Date | Opponent | Location | Projected score | Projected total | Projected margin | Win probability | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5, 2026 | Northern Arizona | Home | 38–14 | 52.3 | +24.2 | 95% | Medium |
| 2 | Sep 12, 2026 | Away | 22–30 | 52.1 | -8.3 | 29% | Medium | |
| 3 | Sep 19, 2026 | Home | 40–9 | 48.6 | +31.4 | 98% | Medium | |
| 4 | Sep 26, 2026 | Away | 31–18 | 48.6 | +13.5 | 82% | Medium | |
| 5 | Oct 3, 2026 | Home | 32–22 | 53.9 | +9.7 | 74% | Medium | |
| 6 | Oct 10, 2026 | Away | 30–22 | 52.1 | +8.3 | 71% | Medium | |
| 7 | Oct 24, 2026 | Home | 31–17 | 48.7 | +14.1 | 83% | Medium | |
| 8 | Oct 31, 2026 | Away | 19–33 | 51.4 | -14.0 | 18% | High | |
| 9 | Nov 6, 2026 | Home | 28–25 | 53.1 | +3.8 | 60% | Low | |
| 10 | Nov 14, 2026 | Home | 28–26 | 53.7 | +1.6 | 54% | Low | |
| 11 | Nov 21, 2026 | Away | 27–28 | 54.8 | -1.8 | 45% | Low | |
| 12 | Nov 28, 2026 | Home | 29–22 | 50.8 | +6.9 | 68% | Medium |
Projection context
These projections reflect the current Rivals Rundown football inputs and are refreshed as the underlying information changes.
Model version 5. RPR, rankings, margins and probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.