Big 12 · Cyclones · Ames, IA
Iowa State
Your complete Iowa State season outlook.
Veteran quarterback cannot fully offset zero returning starters, large portal turnover and a complete coaching transition.
Home stadiumJack Trice StadiumRPR rank#68Projected-wins rank#109
Projected wins4.62Most likely: 4 wins · 80% range 3–6
Rundown Power Rating -0.6Neutral-field strength
RPR Rank #68National power position
Schedule Strength Rank#46Opponent difficulty
Projected-Wins Rank #109Strength plus schedule
Market total4.5
Adjusted Edge -0.29
Probability over52%
Market basis12 games
Team profile
RPR and model ratings
- Rundown Power Rating
- -0.6
- National RPR Rank
- #68
- Schedule strength rank
- #46
- Average opponent power
- +4.6
- Offense rating
- 22.4
- Defense rating
- 23.1
- Projected QB
- Jaylen Raynor
- QB starts
- 36
- QB confidence
- Low-Medium
- Head coach
- Jimmy Rogers
- Returning starters
- 0
- Portal rank
- 16
- Roster fragility
- 76.2
Record outcomes
Win distribution
0<1%
11.4%
26.8%
316.1%
423.8%
523.5%
616.4%
78.1%
82.9%
90.7%
10<1%
11<1%
12<1%
13<1%
Game by game
2026 projected scores and probabilities
Expected scores and margins are model means, not exact-score guarantees.
Each matchup becomes a compact projection card on portrait phones.
| Game | Date | Opponent | Location | Projected score | Projected total | Projected margin | Win probability | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5, 2026 | Southeast Missouri | Home | 32–17 | 48.3 | +14.8 | 84% | Low |
| 2 | Sep 12, 2026 | Away | 15–31 | 45.6 | -16.2 | 14% | Medium | |
| 3 | Sep 19, 2026 | Home | 29–14 | 43.5 | +14.7 | 84% | Low | |
| 4 | Sep 26, 2026 | Home | 20–30 | 49.7 | -9.7 | 26% | Medium | |
| 5 | Oct 3, 2026 | Home | 25–23 | 48.1 | +1.7 | 54% | Low | |
| 6 | Oct 9, 2026 | Away | 14–34 | 48.1 | -19.5 | 10% | Medium | |
| 7 | Oct 24, 2026 | Away | 17–31 | 48.7 | -14.1 | 17% | Medium | |
| 8 | Oct 31, 2026 | Home | 22–28 | 49.6 | -6.5 | 33% | Low | |
| 9 | Nov 7, 2026 | Away | 23–30 | 53.0 | -7.8 | 30% | Medium | |
| 10 | Nov 14, 2026 | Home | 24–26 | 49.9 | -2.2 | 44% | Low | |
| 11 | Nov 20, 2026 | Away | 20–26 | 45.4 | -5.7 | 35% | Medium | |
| 12 | Nov 28, 2026 | Home | 21–30 | 50.8 | -8.6 | 28% | Medium |
Projection context
These projections reflect the current Rivals Rundown football inputs and are refreshed as the underlying information changes.
Model version 5. RPR, rankings, margins and probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.