Big 12 · Bears · Waco, TX
Baylor
Your complete Baylor season outlook.
Transfer talent helps, but quarterback volatility and recent program-level underperformance reduce the median.
Home stadiumMcLane StadiumRPR rank#53Projected-wins rank#88
Projected wins5.75Most likely: 6 wins · 80% range 4–7
Rundown Power Rating +4.0Neutral-field strength
RPR Rank #53National power position
Schedule Strength Rank#45Opponent difficulty
Projected-Wins Rank #88Strength plus schedule
Market total5.5
Adjusted Edge -0.13
Probability over56%
Market basis12 games
Team profile
RPR and model ratings
- Rundown Power Rating
- +4.0
- National RPR Rank
- #53
- Schedule strength rank
- #45
- Average opponent power
- +4.8
- Offense rating
- 31.9
- Defense rating
- 28.4
- Projected QB
- DJ Lagway
- QB starts
- 19
- QB confidence
- Medium
- Head coach
- Dave Aranda
- Returning starters
- 5
- Portal rank
- 5
- Roster fragility
- 44.6
Record outcomes
Win distribution
0<1%
1<1%
21.3%
35.6%
414.1%
522.9%
624.8%
718.1%
89.2%
93.1%
100.7%
11<1%
12<1%
13<1%
Game by game
2026 projected scores and probabilities
Expected scores and margins are model means, not exact-score guarantees.
Each matchup becomes a compact projection card on portrait phones.
| Game | Date | Opponent | Location | Projected score | Projected total | Projected margin | Win probability | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5, 2026 | Neutral | 23–31 | 53.7 | -8.1 | 30% | Medium | |
| 2 | Sep 12, 2026 | Prairie View A&M | Home | 39–17 | 56.7 | +22.3 | 93% | Medium |
| 3 | Sep 19, 2026 | Home | 36–22 | 57.2 | +14.2 | 83% | High | |
| 4 | Sep 26, 2026 | Home | 31–25 | 56.0 | +6.9 | 68% | Medium | |
| 5 | Oct 3, 2026 | Away | 25–30 | 55.1 | -4.9 | 37% | Medium | |
| 6 | Oct 17, 2026 | Home | 27–30 | 57.4 | -3.5 | 41% | Low | |
| 7 | Oct 24, 2026 | Away | 29–30 | 58.0 | -1.0 | 47% | Low | |
| 8 | Oct 30, 2026 | Away | 26–27 | 53.7 | -0.8 | 48% | Low | |
| 9 | Nov 7, 2026 | Home | 30–23 | 53.0 | +7.8 | 70% | Medium | |
| 10 | Nov 14, 2026 | Away | 20–36 | 56.5 | -16.0 | 14% | High | |
| 11 | Nov 21, 2026 | Home | 19–36 | 55.7 | -16.8 | 13% | High | |
| 12 | Nov 28, 2026 | Away | 25–33 | 58.1 | -8.4 | 29% | Medium |
Projection context
These projections reflect the current Rivals Rundown football inputs and are refreshed as the underlying information changes.
Model version 5. RPR, rankings, margins and probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.