Big 12 · Sun Devils · Tempe, AZ
Arizona State
Your complete Arizona State season outlook.
Strong transfer class and offensive coaching partly offset only two returning starters and quarterback turnover.
Home stadiumMountain America StadiumRPR rank#42Projected-wins rank#84
Projected wins5.95Most likely: 6 wins · 80% range 5–7
Rundown Power Rating +6.2Neutral-field strength
RPR Rank #42National power position
Schedule Strength Rank#32Opponent difficulty
Projected-Wins Rank #84Strength plus schedule
Market total6.5
Adjusted Edge -0.55
Probability over36%
Market basis12 games
Team profile
RPR and model ratings
- Rundown Power Rating
- +6.2
- National RPR Rank
- #42
- Schedule strength rank
- #32
- Average opponent power
- +6.2
- Offense rating
- 28.0
- Defense rating
- 21.2
- Projected QB
- Cutter Boley
- QB starts
- 10
- QB confidence
- Medium
- Head coach
- Kenny Dillingham
- Returning starters
- 2
- Portal rank
- 3
- Roster fragility
- 59.5
Record outcomes
Win distribution
0<1%
1<1%
21.0%
34.6%
412.0%
521.2%
624.9%
720.1%
811.1%
94.0%
100.9%
11<1%
12<1%
13<1%
Game by game
2026 projected scores and probabilities
Expected scores and margins are model means, not exact-score guarantees.
Each matchup becomes a compact projection card on portrait phones.
| Game | Date | Opponent | Location | Projected score | Projected total | Projected margin | Win probability | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5, 2026 | Morgan State | Home | 40–11 | 50.4 | +28.9 | 97% | Low |
| 2 | Sep 12, 2026 | Away | 18–34 | 51.6 | -16.4 | 14% | High | |
| 3 | Sep 19, 2026 | Neutral | 27–24 | 51.7 | +2.8 | 57% | Low | |
| 4 | Oct 3, 2026 | Home | 30–25 | 55.1 | +4.9 | 63% | Medium | |
| 5 | Oct 10, 2026 | Home | 33–20 | 52.4 | +12.8 | 80% | Medium | |
| 6 | Oct 17, 2026 | Away | 15–34 | 49.5 | -18.6 | 11% | Medium | |
| 7 | Oct 24, 2026 | Home | 26–27 | 52.9 | -1.5 | 46% | Low | |
| 8 | Oct 31, 2026 | Away | 19–31 | 50.2 | -12.7 | 20% | High | |
| 9 | Nov 7, 2026 | Home | 29–21 | 49.7 | +8.2 | 71% | Low | |
| 10 | Nov 14, 2026 | Away | 24–23 | 47.5 | +0.9 | 52% | Low | |
| 11 | Nov 21, 2026 | Home | 27–26 | 51.7 | +0.5 | 51% | Low | |
| 12 | Nov 28, 2026 | Away | 22–29 | 50.8 | -6.9 | 32% | Medium |
Projection context
These projections reflect the current Rivals Rundown football inputs and are refreshed as the underlying information changes.
Model version 5. RPR, rankings, margins and probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.