Pac-12 · Rams · Fort Collins, CO Flex schedule

Colorado State

Your complete Colorado State season outlook.

Jim Mora and the Pac-12's largest transfer class create rebound potential, but one returning offensive starter, an inexperienced quarterback and a new line keep volatility high.

Home stadiumCanvas StadiumRPR rank#101Projected-wins rank#110

Open in Game Lab

Projected wins4.58Most likely: 4 wins · 80% range 3–6

Rundown Power Rating -8.3Neutral-field strength

RPR Rank #101National power position

Schedule Strength Rank#74Opponent difficulty

Projected-Wins Rank #110Strength plus schedule

Market total4.5

Adjusted Edge +0.17

Probability over41%

Market basis11 games

2026 Pac-12 flex schedule

Full-season projections include a modeled Week 13 flex matchup. Market comparisons use only the 11 currently defined games. The modeled flex game contributes 0.46 expected wins to the full-season projection.

Team profile

RPR and model ratings

Rundown Power Rating: -8.3
National RPR Rank: #101
Schedule strength rank: #74
Average opponent power: -2.8
Offense rating: 18.6
Defense rating: 26.9
Projected QB: Hauss Hejny
QB starts: 1
QB confidence: Low
Head coach: Jim Mora
Returning starters: 5
Portal rank: 1
Roster fragility: 73.8

Record outcomes

Win distribution

0<1%

12.4%

28.0%

316.1%

422.2%

521.8%

616.0%

78.5%

83.4%

91.0%

10<1%

11<1%

12<1%

13<1%

Game by game

2026 projected scores and probabilities

Expected scores and margins are model means, not exact-score guarantees.

Each matchup becomes a compact projection card on portrait phones.

Game	Date	Opponent	Location	Projected score	Projected total	Projected margin	Win probability	Confidence
1	Sep 5, 2026	Wyoming Open matchup in Game Lab →	Home	23–19	42.3	+3.4	59%	Low
2	Sep 12, 2026	Southern Utah	Home	28–20	48.2	+7.4	69%	Low
3	Sep 19, 2026	BYU Open matchup in Game Lab →	Home	13–35	48.1	-22.4	7%	Medium
4	Sep 26, 2026	UTSA Open matchup in Game Lab →	Away	22–31	53.4	-9.2	27%	Medium
5	Oct 3, 2026	Oregon State Open matchup in Game Lab →	Home	23–22	45.7	+0.8	52%	Low
6	Oct 17, 2026	Texas State Open matchup in Game Lab →	Away	26–33	58.6	-6.6	33%	Medium
7	Oct 24, 2026	San Diego State Open matchup in Game Lab →	Home	21–25	45.9	-4.5	38%	Medium
8	Oct 31, 2026	Utah State Open matchup in Game Lab →	Away	23–27	49.7	-3.7	40%	Low
9	Nov 7, 2026	Boise State Open matchup in Game Lab →	Home	18–31	48.8	-12.8	20%	Medium
10	Nov 14, 2026	Washington State Open matchup in Game Lab →	Away	20–25	44.6	-5.6	36%	Low
11	Nov 21, 2026	Fresno State Open matchup in Game Lab →	Away	18–26	43.3	-8.3	29%	Medium
Week 13 FlexProjected	Nov 28, 2026	Texas StateFlexOpen matchup in Game Lab →	Home	29–30	58.6	-1.5	46%	Low

Projection context

These projections reflect the current Rivals Rundown football inputs and are refreshed as the underlying information changes.

Model version 5. RPR, rankings, margins and probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.