ACC · Tar Heels · Chapel Hill, NC
North Carolina
Your complete North Carolina season outlook.
Billy Edwards provides experience and the defense has improvement potential, but low returning production and a four-game Power Four nonconference slate limit the floor.
Home stadiumKenan Memorial StadiumRPR rank#52Projected-wins rank#98
Projected wins5.30Most likely: 5 wins · 80% range 4–7
Rundown Power Rating +4.0Neutral-field strength
RPR Rank #52National power position
Schedule Strength Rank#30Opponent difficulty
Projected-Wins Rank #98Strength plus schedule
Market total4.5
Adjusted Edge +0.65
Probability over69%
Market basis12 games
Team profile
RPR and model ratings
- Rundown Power Rating
- +4.0
- National RPR Rank
- #52
- Schedule strength rank
- #30
- Average opponent power
- +6.5
- Offense rating
- 24.6
- Defense rating
- 21.0
- Projected QB
- Billy Edwards Jr.
- QB starts
- 18
- QB confidence
- Low-Medium
- Head coach
- Bill Belichick
- Returning starters
- 5
- Portal rank
- 10
- Roster fragility
- 53.3
Record outcomes
Win distribution
0<1%
1<1%
22.7%
39.3%
418.6%
524.6%
622.2%
713.8%
86.1%
91.8%
10<1%
11<1%
12<1%
13<1%
Game by game
2026 projected scores and probabilities
Expected scores and margins are model means, not exact-score guarantees.
Each matchup becomes a compact projection card on portrait phones.
| Game | Date | Opponent | Location | Projected score | Projected total | Projected margin | Win probability | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29, 2026 | Neutral | 22–27 | 49.1 | -5.4 | 36% | Medium | |
| 2 | Sep 12, 2026 | East Tennessee State | Home | 35–13 | 48.3 | +22.3 | 93% | Medium |
| 3 | Sep 19, 2026 | Away | 17–28 | 45.2 | -11.1 | 23% | Medium | |
| 4 | Oct 3, 2026 | Home | 15–35 | 50.0 | -19.5 | 10% | High | |
| 5 | Oct 10, 2026 | Away | 22–27 | 49.6 | -5.3 | 36% | Medium | |
| 6 | Oct 17, 2026 | Away | 24–29 | 53.0 | -4.5 | 38% | Medium | |
| 7 | Oct 24, 2026 | Home | 27–20 | 46.5 | +6.9 | 68% | Medium | |
| 8 | Oct 31, 2026 | Home | 16–31 | 46.4 | -15.0 | 16% | High | |
| 9 | Nov 7, 2026 | Away | 31–18 | 48.8 | +12.3 | 79% | Low | |
| 10 | Nov 14, 2026 | Home | 21–26 | 47.4 | -4.7 | 38% | Medium | |
| 11 | Nov 21, 2026 | Away | 20–25 | 45.2 | -5.0 | 37% | Medium | |
| 12 | Nov 28, 2026 | Home | 26–25 | 50.7 | +1.2 | 53% | Low |
Projection context
These projections reflect the current Rivals Rundown football inputs and are refreshed as the underlying information changes.
Model version 5. RPR, rankings, margins and probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.