Big Ten · Fighting Illini · Champaign, IL
Illinois
Your complete Illinois season outlook.
A veteran transfer quarterback and modest portal gain help, but only seven starters return and the defensive coordinator changes.
Home stadiumMemorial StadiumRPR rank#35Projected-wins rank#53
Projected wins7.12Most likely: 7 wins · 80% range 6–8
Rundown Power Rating +9.6Neutral-field strength
RPR Rank #35National power position
Schedule Strength Rank#33Opponent difficulty
Projected-Wins Rank #53Strength plus schedule
Market total7.5
Adjusted Edge -0.04
Probability over41%
Market basis12 games
Team profile
RPR and model ratings
- Rundown Power Rating
- +9.6
- National RPR Rank
- #35
- Schedule strength rank
- #33
- Average opponent power
- +6.2
- Offense rating
- 31.7
- Defense rating
- 22.7
- Projected QB
- Katin Houser
- QB starts
- 25
- QB confidence
- Medium
- Head coach
- Bret Bielema
- Returning starters
- 7
- Portal rank
- 11
- Roster fragility
- 28.2
Record outcomes
Win distribution
0<1%
1<1%
2<1%
30.6%
43.0%
59.5%
619.5%
726.6%
823.4%
913.0%
103.7%
11<1%
12<1%
13<1%
Game by game
2026 projected scores and probabilities
Expected scores and margins are model means, not exact-score guarantees.
Each matchup becomes a compact projection card on portrait phones.
| Game | Date | Opponent | Location | Projected score | Projected total | Projected margin | Win probability | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 3, 2026 | Home | 43–14 | 56.9 | +29.8 | 98% | Medium | |
| 2 | Sep 12, 2026 | Home | 32–26 | 58.0 | +6.2 | 66% | Medium | |
| 3 | Sep 19, 2026 | Southern Illinois | Home | 37–17 | 53.3 | +19.9 | 91% | Medium |
| 4 | Sep 26, 2026 | Away | 13–39 | 52.0 | -26.3 | 4% | High | |
| 5 | Oct 3, 2026 | Home | 34–19 | 52.7 | +15.5 | 85% | High | |
| 6 | Oct 10, 2026 | Away | 31–23 | 53.7 | +7.9 | 70% | Medium | |
| 7 | Oct 24, 2026 | Home | 18–36 | 54.2 | -17.3 | 12% | High | |
| 8 | Oct 31, 2026 | Away | 27–24 | 51.5 | +2.8 | 58% | Low | |
| 9 | Nov 6, 2026 | Home | 28–25 | 52.7 | +3.4 | 59% | Low | |
| 10 | Nov 13, 2026 | Away | 28–26 | 54.0 | +1.4 | 54% | Low | |
| 11 | Nov 21, 2026 | Home | 25–26 | 50.6 | -1.0 | 47% | Low | |
| 12 | Nov 28, 2026 | Home | 28–21 | 49.3 | +7.6 | 69% | Medium |
Projection context
These projections reflect the current Rivals Rundown football inputs and are refreshed as the underlying information changes.
Model version 5. RPR, rankings, margins and probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.