ACC · Wolfpack · Raleigh, NC
NC State
Your complete NC State season outlook.
CJ Bailey gives the offense a stable core, but only five returning starters and a balanced nine-game league slate keep the projection near the market.
Home stadiumCarter-Finley StadiumRPR rank#47Projected-wins rank#62
Projected wins6.85Most likely: 7 wins · 80% range 5–8
Rundown Power Rating +5.1Neutral-field strength
RPR Rank #47National power position
Schedule Strength Rank#62Opponent difficulty
Projected-Wins Rank #62Strength plus schedule
Market total7.5
Adjusted Edge -0.38
Probability over35%
Market basis12 games
Team profile
RPR and model ratings
- Rundown Power Rating
- +5.1
- National RPR Rank
- #47
- Schedule strength rank
- #62
- Average opponent power
- +2.5
- Offense rating
- 30.8
- Defense rating
- 25.3
- Projected QB
- CJ Bailey
- QB starts
- 24
- QB confidence
- Medium
- Head coach
- Dave Doeren
- Returning starters
- 5
- Portal rank
- 9
- Roster fragility
- 35.5
Record outcomes
Win distribution
0<1%
1<1%
2<1%
31.6%
45.6%
513.0%
620.7%
723.6%
819.4%
910.7%
104.0%
110.9%
12<1%
13<1%
Game by game
2026 projected scores and probabilities
Expected scores and margins are model means, not exact-score guarantees.
Each matchup becomes a compact projection card on portrait phones.
| Game | Date | Opponent | Location | Projected score | Projected total | Projected margin | Win probability | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29, 2026 | Neutral | 25–26 | 51.1 | -1.7 | 46% | Low | |
| 2 | Sep 11, 2026 | Richmond | Home | 36–18 | 54.3 | +17.5 | 88% | Medium |
| 3 | Sep 19, 2026 | Away | 25–32 | 57.1 | -6.9 | 32% | Medium | |
| 4 | Sep 26, 2026 | Home | 38–18 | 55.8 | +19.5 | 90% | Medium | |
| 5 | Oct 3, 2026 | Home | 25–29 | 53.3 | -4.1 | 39% | Medium | |
| 6 | Oct 10, 2026 | Home | 27–23 | 50.3 | +3.8 | 60% | Low | |
| 7 | Oct 23, 2026 | Away | 28–23 | 51.4 | +5.1 | 63% | Medium | |
| 8 | Oct 31, 2026 | Home | 30–26 | 55.7 | +4.1 | 61% | Medium | |
| 9 | Nov 7, 2026 | Home | 30–29 | 59.0 | +1.7 | 55% | Low | |
| 10 | Nov 14, 2026 | Home | 31–22 | 52.4 | +8.7 | 72% | Medium | |
| 11 | Nov 21, 2026 | Away | 23–30 | 53.4 | -6.6 | 33% | Medium | |
| 12 | Nov 28, 2026 | Away | 25–26 | 50.7 | -1.2 | 47% | Low |
Projection context
These projections reflect the current Rivals Rundown football inputs and are refreshed as the underlying information changes.
Model version 5. RPR, rankings, margins and probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.