Conference USA · Aggies · Las Cruces, NM
New Mexico State
Your complete New Mexico State season outlook.
The league's highest snapback rate, improved retention and Trey Hedden raise the floor despite a modest offensive baseline.
Home stadiumAggie Memorial StadiumRPR rank#123Projected-wins rank#112
Projected wins4.55Most likely: 5 wins · 80% range 3–6
Rundown Power Rating -15.8Neutral-field strength
RPR Rank #123National power position
Schedule Strength Rank#116Opponent difficulty
Projected-Wins Rank #112Strength plus schedule
Market total4.5
Adjusted Edge -0.03
Probability over51%
Market basis12 games
Team profile
RPR and model ratings
- Rundown Power Rating
- -15.8
- National RPR Rank
- #123
- Schedule strength rank
- #116
- Average opponent power
- -10.1
- Offense rating
- 17.2
- Defense rating
- 33.2
- Projected QB
- Trey Hedden
- QB starts
- 10
- QB confidence
- Medium-High
- Head coach
- Tony Sanchez
- Returning starters
- 8
- Portal rank
- 7
- Roster fragility
- 37.8
Record outcomes
Win distribution
0<1%
12.0%
27.4%
316.3%
423.5%
523.5%
616.1%
77.8%
82.5%
90.6%
10<1%
11<1%
12<1%
13<1%
Game by game
2026 projected scores and probabilities
Expected scores and margins are model means, not exact-score guarantees.
Each matchup becomes a compact projection card on portrait phones.
| Game | Date | Opponent | Location | Projected score | Projected total | Projected margin | Win probability | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29, 2026 | Away | 11–39 | 50.1 | -27.8 | 3% | High | |
| 2 | Sep 12, 2026 | Away | 19–34 | 53.1 | -15.8 | 15% | High | |
| 3 | Sep 19, 2026 | Nicholls | Home | 26–25 | 51.0 | +0.7 | 52% | Low |
| 4 | Sep 26, 2026 | Home | 18–32 | 50.9 | -14.0 | 17% | High | |
| 5 | Oct 1, 2026 | Home | 23–31 | 53.6 | -8.5 | 29% | Medium | |
| 6 | Oct 7, 2026 | Away | 24–29 | 53.6 | -5.2 | 37% | Medium | |
| 7 | Oct 21, 2026 | Away | 30–22 | 52.4 | +7.5 | 69% | Medium | |
| 8 | Oct 28, 2026 | Home | 24–30 | 53.8 | -6.3 | 34% | Medium | |
| 9 | Nov 7, 2026 | Home | 23–31 | 54.1 | -7.3 | 31% | Medium | |
| 10 | Nov 14, 2026 | Away | 26–25 | 50.9 | +0.2 | 50% | Low | |
| 11 | Nov 21, 2026 | Home | 27–28 | 54.6 | -0.9 | 48% | Low | |
| 12 | Nov 28, 2026 | Away | 30–23 | 52.0 | +7.0 | 68% | Medium |
Projection context
These projections reflect the current Rivals Rundown football inputs and are refreshed as the underlying information changes.
Model version 5. RPR, rankings, margins and probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.