Big Ten · Golden Gophers · Minneapolis, MN
Minnesota
Your complete Minnesota season outlook.
Eleven returning starters, quarterback continuity and P.J. Fleck's stable development model create a solid floor.
Home stadiumHuntington Bank StadiumRPR rank#45Projected-wins rank#79
Projected wins6.05Most likely: 6 wins · 80% range 5–7
Rundown Power Rating +5.7Neutral-field strength
RPR Rank #45National power position
Schedule Strength Rank#42Opponent difficulty
Projected-Wins Rank #79Strength plus schedule
Market total6.5
Adjusted Edge -0.13
Probability over38%
Market basis12 games
Team profile
RPR and model ratings
- Rundown Power Rating
- +5.7
- National RPR Rank
- #45
- Schedule strength rank
- #42
- Average opponent power
- +4.9
- Offense rating
- 25.5
- Defense rating
- 19.3
- Projected QB
- Drake Lindsey
- QB starts
- 12
- QB confidence
- Medium-High
- Head coach
- P.J. Fleck
- Returning starters
- 11
- Portal rank
- 13
- Roster fragility
- 28.1
Record outcomes
Win distribution
0<1%
1<1%
2<1%
33.3%
410.9%
521.0%
626.4%
721.6%
811.5%
93.9%
100.8%
11<1%
12<1%
13<1%
Game by game
2026 projected scores and probabilities
Expected scores and margins are model means, not exact-score guarantees.
Each matchup becomes a compact projection card on portrait phones.
| Game | Date | Opponent | Location | Projected score | Projected total | Projected margin | Win probability | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 3, 2026 | Eastern Illinois | Home | 39–9 | 48.0 | +30.1 | 98% | Medium |
| 2 | Sep 12, 2026 | Home | 27–23 | 50.7 | +4.0 | 61% | Medium | |
| 3 | Sep 19, 2026 | Home | 36–9 | 44.2 | +27.1 | 96% | High | |
| 4 | Sep 26, 2026 | Away | 18–29 | 47.0 | -11.9 | 21% | High | |
| 5 | Oct 3, 2026 | Home | 19–27 | 46.4 | -8.3 | 29% | Medium | |
| 6 | Oct 10, 2026 | Away | 27–21 | 47.4 | +6.0 | 65% | Medium | |
| 7 | Oct 24, 2026 | Home | 20–25 | 45.3 | -4.5 | 38% | Medium | |
| 8 | Oct 31, 2026 | Away | 13–35 | 47.6 | -21.9 | 7% | High | |
| 9 | Nov 7, 2026 | Home | 25–23 | 48.6 | +2.3 | 56% | Low | |
| 10 | Nov 14, 2026 | Away | 18–31 | 48.3 | -13.0 | 19% | High | |
| 11 | Nov 21, 2026 | Home | 24–20 | 44.1 | +3.3 | 59% | Low | |
| 12 | Nov 27, 2026 | Away | 21–20 | 41.1 | +1.3 | 53% | Low |
Projection context
These projections reflect the current Rivals Rundown football inputs and are refreshed as the underlying information changes.
Model version 5. RPR, rankings, margins and probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.