Independent · Huskies · Storrs, CT
UConn
Your complete UConn season outlook.
Jason Candle inherits a roster returning only one starter and must integrate an exceptionally large transfer class. The schedule remains manageable, but quarterback and two-deep cohesion create a wide range.
Home stadiumPratt & Whitney Stadium at Rentschler FieldRPR rank#107Projected-wins rank#101
Projected wins5.12Most likely: 5 wins · 80% range 4–7
Rundown Power Rating -10.7Neutral-field strength
RPR Rank #107National power position
Schedule Strength Rank#93Opponent difficulty
Projected-Wins Rank #101Strength plus schedule
Market total5.5
Adjusted Edge -0.33
Probability over40%
Market basis12 games
Team profile
RPR and model ratings
- Rundown Power Rating
- -10.7
- National RPR Rank
- #107
- Schedule strength rank
- #93
- Average opponent power
- -7.5
- Offense rating
- 20.7
- Defense rating
- 32.0
- Projected QB
- Jake Merklinger / Kalieb Osborne / Tucker McDonald
- QB starts
- 0
- QB confidence
- Low
- Head coach
- Jason Candle
- Returning starters
- 1
- Portal rank
- 75
- Roster fragility
- 98.3
Record outcomes
Win distribution
0<1%
10.9%
24.4%
311.8%
419.7%
523.0%
619.6%
712.3%
85.8%
92.0%
10<1%
11<1%
12<1%
13<1%
Game by game
2026 projected scores and probabilities
Expected scores and margins are model means, not exact-score guarantees.
Each matchup becomes a compact projection card on portrait phones.
| Game | Date | Opponent | Location | Projected score | Projected total | Projected margin | Win probability | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5, 2026 | Lafayette | Home | 29–23 | 52.3 | +5.8 | 65% | Low |
| 2 | Sep 12, 2026 | Home | 19–32 | 50.6 | -12.8 | 20% | Medium | |
| 3 | Sep 19, 2026 | Away | 32–22 | 54.4 | +9.9 | 75% | Low | |
| 4 | Sep 26, 2026 | Away | 18–29 | 47.0 | -11.1 | 23% | Low | |
| 5 | Oct 3, 2026 | Home | 21–29 | 50.4 | -7.5 | 31% | Low | |
| 6 | Oct 10, 2026 | Away | 26–31 | 56.4 | -5.2 | 36% | Low | |
| 7 | Oct 23, 2026 | Home | 37–15 | 51.2 | +22.2 | 93% | Low | |
| 8 | Oct 31, 2026 | Away | 21–32 | 53.0 | -11.7 | 22% | Low | |
| 9 | Nov 7, 2026 | Home | 18–31 | 48.8 | -12.3 | 21% | Low | |
| 10 | Nov 14, 2026 | Home | 23–29 | 52.2 | -6.8 | 33% | Low | |
| 11 | Nov 21, 2026 | Home | 23–26 | 48.7 | -3.1 | 42% | Low | |
| 12 | Nov 28, 2026 | Away | 21–25 | 46.3 | -3.9 | 40% | Low |
Projection context
These projections reflect the current Rivals Rundown football inputs and are refreshed as the underlying information changes.
Model version 5. RPR, rankings, margins and probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.