Conference USA · Bears · Springfield, MO
Missouri State
Your complete Missouri State season outlook.
Seven starters return, but a new staff and an unresolved quarterback competition create substantial integration uncertainty.
Home stadiumRobert W. Plaster StadiumRPR rank#126Projected-wins rank#127
Projected wins3.42Most likely: 3 wins · 80% range 2–5
Rundown Power Rating -18.5Neutral-field strength
RPR Rank #126National power position
Schedule Strength Rank#87Opponent difficulty
Projected-Wins Rank #127Strength plus schedule
Market total4.5
Adjusted Edge -0.76
Probability over23%
Market basis12 games
Team profile
RPR and model ratings
- Rundown Power Rating
- -18.5
- National RPR Rank
- #126
- Schedule strength rank
- #87
- Average opponent power
- -6.7
- Offense rating
- 16.8
- Defense rating
- 34.8
- Projected QB
- Henry Belin IV / Skyler Locklear
- QB starts
- 4
- QB confidence
- Low
- Head coach
- Casey Woods
- Returning starters
- 7
- Portal rank
- 6
- Roster fragility
- 74.8
Record outcomes
Win distribution
01.4%
17.8%
218.8%
326.0%
423.2%
514.2%
66.3%
71.9%
8<1%
9<1%
10<1%
11<1%
12<1%
13<1%
Game by game
2026 projected scores and probabilities
Expected scores and margins are model means, not exact-score guarantees.
Each matchup becomes a compact projection card on portrait phones.
| Game | Date | Opponent | Location | Projected score | Projected total | Projected margin | Win probability | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5, 2026 | Away | 6–47 | 53.0 | -41.7 | <1% | Medium | |
| 2 | Sep 12, 2026 | Lindenwood | Home | 25–27 | 51.7 | -2.2 | 44% | Low |
| 3 | Sep 19, 2026 | Home | 24–35 | 58.7 | -10.9 | 23% | Medium | |
| 4 | Sep 26, 2026 | Away | 10–42 | 52.2 | -32.3 | 2% | Medium | |
| 5 | Oct 8, 2026 | Away | 19–35 | 54.3 | -16.3 | 14% | Low | |
| 6 | Oct 14, 2026 | Home | 22–29 | 51.5 | -7.3 | 31% | Low | |
| 7 | Oct 20, 2026 | Away | 23–32 | 55.3 | -8.9 | 28% | Medium | |
| 8 | Oct 27, 2026 | Home | 31–22 | 53.1 | +9.5 | 74% | Low | |
| 9 | Nov 7, 2026 | Away | 23–31 | 54.3 | -7.5 | 31% | Low | |
| 10 | Nov 14, 2026 | Home | 25–26 | 50.9 | -0.2 | 50% | Low | |
| 11 | Nov 21, 2026 | Away | 20–34 | 54.5 | -13.8 | 18% | Medium | |
| 12 | Nov 28, 2026 | Home | 22–33 | 54.9 | -10.4 | 24% | Medium |
Projection context
These projections reflect the current Rivals Rundown football inputs and are refreshed as the underlying information changes.
Model version 5. RPR, rankings, margins and probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.