Big 12 · Cougars · Houston, TX
Houston
Your complete Houston season outlook.
Twelve returning starters, a strongly positive transfer exchange and Willie Fritz's development record support upside.
Home stadiumTDECU StadiumRPR rank#32Projected-wins rank#30
Projected wins7.84Most likely: 8 wins · 80% range 7–9
Rundown Power Rating +9.9Neutral-field strength
RPR Rank #32National power position
Schedule Strength Rank#64Opponent difficulty
Projected-Wins Rank #30Strength plus schedule
Market total8.5
Adjusted Edge -0.35
Probability over33%
Market basis12 games
Team profile
RPR and model ratings
- Rundown Power Rating
- +9.9
- National RPR Rank
- #32
- Schedule strength rank
- #64
- Average opponent power
- +2.3
- Offense rating
- 32.1
- Defense rating
- 22.2
- Projected QB
- Conner Weigman
- QB starts
- 23
- QB confidence
- High
- Head coach
- Willie Fritz
- Returning starters
- 12
- Portal rank
- 12
- Roster fragility
- 18.3
Record outcomes
Win distribution
0<1%
1<1%
2<1%
3<1%
41.1%
54.6%
611.9%
722.1%
826.6%
920.9%
109.8%
112.5%
12<1%
13<1%
Game by game
2026 projected scores and probabilities
Expected scores and margins are model means, not exact-score guarantees.
Each matchup becomes a compact projection card on portrait phones.
| Game | Date | Opponent | Location | Projected score | Projected total | Projected margin | Win probability | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5, 2026 | Home | 35–16 | 50.6 | +18.7 | 89% | High | |
| 2 | Sep 12, 2026 | Southern | Home | 43–10 | 53.3 | +33.2 | 99% | Medium |
| 3 | Sep 18, 2026 | Away | 19–34 | 52.4 | -15.1 | 16% | High | |
| 4 | Sep 26, 2026 | Away | 36–20 | 55.2 | +16.1 | 86% | High | |
| 5 | Oct 3, 2026 | Home | 30–20 | 50.3 | +9.7 | 74% | Medium | |
| 6 | Oct 10, 2026 | Away | 26–29 | 55.8 | -3.2 | 42% | Low | |
| 7 | Oct 17, 2026 | Home | 29–25 | 54.6 | +4.0 | 61% | Medium | |
| 8 | Oct 24, 2026 | Away | 25–30 | 54.7 | -4.5 | 38% | Medium | |
| 9 | Nov 7, 2026 | Home | 32–23 | 54.9 | +8.9 | 72% | Medium | |
| 10 | Nov 13, 2026 | Away | 30–23 | 52.6 | +7.3 | 69% | Medium | |
| 11 | Nov 21, 2026 | Away | 30–23 | 53.1 | +7.3 | 69% | Medium | |
| 12 | Nov 28, 2026 | Home | 33–25 | 58.1 | +8.4 | 71% | Medium |
Projection context
These projections reflect the current Rivals Rundown football inputs and are refreshed as the underlying information changes.
Model version 5. RPR, rankings, margins and probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.