Big 12 · Cowboys · Stillwater, OK
Oklahoma State
Your complete Oklahoma State season outlook.
Massive turnover creates variance, but a system-familiar North Texas core and productive quarterback provide real upside.
Home stadiumBoone Pickens StadiumRPR rank#38Projected-wins rank#60
Projected wins6.88Most likely: 7 wins · 80% range 6–8
Rundown Power Rating +8.2Neutral-field strength
RPR Rank #38National power position
Schedule Strength Rank#48Opponent difficulty
Projected-Wins Rank #60Strength plus schedule
Market total6.5
Adjusted Edge +0.65
Probability over60%
Market basis12 games
Team profile
RPR and model ratings
- Rundown Power Rating
- +8.2
- National RPR Rank
- #38
- Schedule strength rank
- #48
- Average opponent power
- +4.2
- Offense rating
- 30.9
- Defense rating
- 23.3
- Projected QB
- Drew Mestemaker
- QB starts
- 14
- QB confidence
- Low-Medium
- Head coach
- Eric Morris
- Returning starters
- 3
- Portal rank
- 2
- Roster fragility
- 81.8
Record outcomes
Win distribution
0<1%
1<1%
2<1%
31.5%
45.2%
512.4%
620.7%
724.4%
820.1%
911.0%
103.7%
110.7%
12<1%
13<1%
Game by game
2026 projected scores and probabilities
Expected scores and margins are model means, not exact-score guarantees.
Each matchup becomes a compact projection card on portrait phones.
| Game | Date | Opponent | Location | Projected score | Projected total | Projected margin | Win probability | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5, 2026 | Away | 34–21 | 55.1 | +13.2 | 81% | Medium | |
| 2 | Sep 12, 2026 | Home | 18–36 | 54.1 | -18.1 | 11% | Medium | |
| 3 | Sep 19, 2026 | Murray State | Home | 44–9 | 53.2 | +34.6 | 99% | Low |
| 4 | Sep 26, 2026 | Away | 29–24 | 53.0 | +5.8 | 65% | Low | |
| 5 | Oct 10, 2026 | Home | 30–21 | 50.3 | +8.8 | 72% | Medium | |
| 6 | Oct 17, 2026 | Away | 25–29 | 54.6 | -4.0 | 39% | Medium | |
| 7 | Oct 24, 2026 | Home | 31–21 | 52.6 | +10.4 | 76% | Low | |
| 8 | Oct 31, 2026 | Away | 28–22 | 49.6 | +6.5 | 67% | Low | |
| 9 | Nov 7, 2026 | Away | 25–30 | 55.7 | -4.7 | 38% | Medium | |
| 10 | Nov 14, 2026 | Home | 20–32 | 52.3 | -12.1 | 21% | Medium | |
| 11 | Nov 21, 2026 | Away | 26–27 | 51.7 | -0.5 | 49% | Low | |
| 12 | Nov 28, 2026 | Home | 31–23 | 54.5 | +7.7 | 70% | Low |
Projection context
These projections reflect the current Rivals Rundown football inputs and are refreshed as the underlying information changes.
Model version 5. RPR, rankings, margins and probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.