Big 12 · Wildcats · Manhattan, KS
Kansas State
Your complete Kansas State season outlook.
A veteran quarterback and offensive continuity nearly offset a first-time head coach and defensive pass-rush losses.
Home stadiumBill Snyder Family StadiumRPR rank#30Projected-wins rank#20
Projected wins8.28Most likely: 8 wins · 80% range 7–10
Rundown Power Rating +10.3Neutral-field strength
RPR Rank #30National power position
Schedule Strength Rank#65Opponent difficulty
Projected-Wins Rank #20Strength plus schedule
Market total8.5
Adjusted Edge -0.01
Probability over46%
Market basis12 games
Team profile
RPR and model ratings
- Rundown Power Rating
- +10.3
- National RPR Rank
- #30
- Schedule strength rank
- #65
- Average opponent power
- +1.7
- Offense rating
- 33.1
- Defense rating
- 23.1
- Projected QB
- Avery Johnson
- QB starts
- 26
- QB confidence
- Medium-High
- Head coach
- Collin Klein
- Returning starters
- 8
- Portal rank
- 9
- Roster fragility
- 36.8
Record outcomes
Win distribution
0<1%
1<1%
2<1%
3<1%
40.7%
53.2%
68.8%
717.2%
824.4%
923.5%
1015.4%
115.7%
121.0%
13<1%
Game by game
2026 projected scores and probabilities
Expected scores and margins are model means, not exact-score guarantees.
Each matchup becomes a compact projection card on portrait phones.
| Game | Date | Opponent | Location | Projected score | Projected total | Projected margin | Win probability | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5, 2026 | Nicholls | Home | 44–11 | 54.4 | +32.9 | 99% | Medium |
| 2 | Sep 12, 2026 | Home | 34–16 | 50.7 | +18.0 | 89% | Medium | |
| 3 | Sep 19, 2026 | Home | 36–18 | 53.7 | +17.6 | 88% | Medium | |
| 4 | Sep 26, 2026 | Away | 30–26 | 56.0 | +4.3 | 61% | Medium | |
| 5 | Oct 10, 2026 | Home | 29–26 | 55.8 | +3.2 | 58% | Low | |
| 6 | Oct 17, 2026 | Home | 33–23 | 55.7 | +10.1 | 75% | Medium | |
| 7 | Oct 24, 2026 | Away | 27–26 | 52.9 | +1.5 | 54% | Low | |
| 8 | Oct 31, 2026 | Away | 31–23 | 53.7 | +7.7 | 70% | Medium | |
| 9 | Nov 7, 2026 | Home | 30–25 | 55.7 | +4.7 | 62% | Medium | |
| 10 | Nov 14, 2026 | Away | 27–28 | 55.1 | -1.7 | 45% | Low | |
| 11 | Nov 21, 2026 | Home | 28–27 | 54.8 | +1.8 | 55% | Low | |
| 12 | Nov 28, 2026 | Away | 30–21 | 50.8 | +8.6 | 72% | Medium |
Projection context
These projections reflect the current Rivals Rundown football inputs and are refreshed as the underlying information changes.
Model version 5. RPR, rankings, margins and probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.