Big 12 · Mountaineers · Morgantown, WV
West Virginia
Your complete West Virginia season outlook.
Scheme continuity improves in Year 2, but limited returning starters and an unproven quarterback lower the median.
Home stadiumMilan Puskar StadiumRPR rank#66Projected-wins rank#106
Projected wins4.80Most likely: 5 wins · 80% range 3–6
Rundown Power Rating -0.1Neutral-field strength
RPR Rank #66National power position
Schedule Strength Rank#40Opponent difficulty
Projected-Wins Rank #106Strength plus schedule
Market total5.5
Adjusted Edge -1.06
Probability over32%
Market basis12 games
Team profile
RPR and model ratings
- Rundown Power Rating
- -0.1
- National RPR Rank
- #66
- Schedule strength rank
- #40
- Average opponent power
- +5.0
- Offense rating
- 25.7
- Defense rating
- 25.8
- Projected QB
- Michael Hawkins Jr.
- QB starts
- 4
- QB confidence
- Low-Medium
- Head coach
- Rich Rodriguez
- Returning starters
- 3
- Portal rank
- 14
- Roster fragility
- 67.8
Record outcomes
Win distribution
0<1%
11.1%
25.5%
314.4%
422.6%
524.2%
618.0%
79.4%
83.6%
90.9%
10<1%
11<1%
12<1%
13<1%
Game by game
2026 projected scores and probabilities
Expected scores and margins are model means, not exact-score guarantees.
Each matchup becomes a compact projection card on portrait phones.
| Game | Date | Opponent | Location | Projected score | Projected total | Projected margin | Win probability | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5, 2026 | Home | 35–19 | 53.6 | +16.1 | 86% | Low | |
| 2 | Sep 12, 2026 | UT Martin | Home | 33–19 | 51.7 | +14.3 | 83% | Low |
| 3 | Sep 19, 2026 | Neutral | 21–28 | 48.5 | -6.7 | 33% | Medium | |
| 4 | Sep 26, 2026 | Home | 24–29 | 53.0 | -5.8 | 35% | Low | |
| 5 | Oct 3, 2026 | Away | 23–25 | 48.1 | -1.7 | 46% | Low | |
| 6 | Oct 10, 2026 | Home | 22–30 | 52.1 | -8.3 | 29% | Medium | |
| 7 | Oct 17, 2026 | Home | 26–28 | 53.3 | -1.9 | 45% | Low | |
| 8 | Oct 24, 2026 | Away | 20–32 | 52.4 | -12.3 | 21% | High | |
| 9 | Nov 7, 2026 | Away | 13–38 | 50.8 | -24.8 | 5% | Medium | |
| 10 | Nov 14, 2026 | Home | 26–27 | 53.0 | -0.6 | 48% | Low | |
| 11 | Nov 21, 2026 | Home | 23–30 | 53.1 | -7.3 | 31% | Medium | |
| 12 | Nov 27, 2026 | Away | 19–34 | 53.1 | -14.7 | 16% | Medium |
Projection context
These projections reflect the current Rivals Rundown football inputs and are refreshed as the underlying information changes.
Model version 5. RPR, rankings, margins and probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.