Pac-12 · Beavers · Corvallis, OR Flex schedule

Oregon State

Your complete Oregon State season outlook.

Maalik Murphy supplies experience, but a first-year staff and heavy reliance on lower-level transfers leave both the floor and weekly consistency uncertain.

Home stadiumReser StadiumRPR rank#94Projected-wins rank#105

Open in Game Lab

Projected wins4.88Most likely: 5 wins · 80% range 4–6

Rundown Power Rating -6.3Neutral-field strength

RPR Rank #94National power position

Schedule Strength Rank#71Opponent difficulty

Projected-Wins Rank #105Strength plus schedule

Market total4.5

Adjusted Edge +0.44

Probability over49%

Market basis11 games

2026 Pac-12 flex schedule

Full-season projections include a modeled Week 13 flex matchup. Market comparisons use only the 11 currently defined games. The modeled flex game contributes 0.42 expected wins to the full-season projection.

Team profile

RPR and model ratings

Rundown Power Rating: -6.3
National RPR Rank: #94
Schedule strength rank: #71
Average opponent power: -1.6
Offense rating: 20.8
Defense rating: 26.4
Projected QB: Maalik Murphy
QB starts: 20
QB confidence: Medium
Head coach: JaMarcus Shephard
Returning starters: 7
Portal rank: 4
Roster fragility: 46.9

Record outcomes

Win distribution

0<1%

11.2%

25.3%

313.1%

421.5%

524.2%

619.0%

710.5%

84.0%

91.0%

10<1%

11<1%

12<1%

13<1%

Game by game

2026 projected scores and probabilities

Expected scores and margins are model means, not exact-score guarantees.

Each matchup becomes a compact projection card on portrait phones.

Game	Date	Opponent	Location	Projected score	Projected total	Projected margin	Win probability	Confidence
1	Sep 5, 2026	Houston Open matchup in Game Lab →	Away	16–35	50.6	-18.7	11%	High
2	Sep 12, 2026	Texas Tech Open matchup in Game Lab →	Home	11–37	48.4	-25.9	4%	High
3	Sep 19, 2026	Montana	Home	24–25	49.2	-0.7	48%	Low
4	Sep 26, 2026	UTEP Open matchup in Game Lab →	Away	30–18	47.9	+11.1	77%	Medium
5	Oct 3, 2026	Colorado State Open matchup in Game Lab →	Away	22–23	45.7	-0.8	48%	Low
6	Oct 10, 2026	San Diego State Open matchup in Game Lab →	Home	22–25	46.9	-2.7	43%	Low
7	Oct 17, 2026	Washington State Open matchup in Game Lab →	Home	24–22	45.6	+1.6	54%	Low
8	Oct 31, 2026	Fresno State Open matchup in Game Lab →	Away	19–25	44.3	-6.2	34%	Medium
9	Nov 7, 2026	Texas State Open matchup in Game Lab →	Home	30–29	59.7	+1.1	53%	Low
10	Nov 14, 2026	Boise State Open matchup in Game Lab →	Away	17–33	49.8	-15.9	14%	High
11	Nov 21, 2026	Utah State Open matchup in Game Lab →	Home	27–24	50.7	+3.2	59%	Low
Week 13 FlexProjected	Nov 28, 2026	Washington StateFlexOpen matchup in Game Lab →	Away	21–24	45.6	-3.3	41%	Low

Projection context

These projections reflect the current Rivals Rundown football inputs and are refreshed as the underlying information changes.

Model version 5. RPR, rankings, margins and probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.