Big 12 · Red Raiders · Lubbock, TX
Texas Tech
Your complete Texas Tech season outlook.
Elite roster and portal class remain intact, but quarterback injury/eligibility developments create a large negative residual.
Home stadiumJones AT&T StadiumRPR rank#7Projected-wins rank#2
Projected wins10.70Most likely: 11 wins · 80% range 10–12
Rundown Power Rating +22.5Neutral-field strength
RPR Rank #7National power position
Schedule Strength Rank#68Opponent difficulty
Projected-Wins Rank #2Strength plus schedule
Market total10.5
Adjusted Edge -0.18
Probability over62%
Market basis12 games
Team profile
RPR and model ratings
- Rundown Power Rating
- +22.5
- National RPR Rank
- #7
- Schedule strength rank
- #68
- Average opponent power
- +0.9
- Offense rating
- 36.1
- Defense rating
- 14.2
- Projected QB
- Will Hammond
- QB starts
- 1
- QB confidence
- Low-Medium
- Head coach
- Joey McGuire
- Returning starters
- 11
- Portal rank
- 1
- Roster fragility
- 41.6
Record outcomes
Win distribution
0<1%
1<1%
2<1%
3<1%
4<1%
5<1%
6<1%
70.5%
82.7%
910.0%
1024.7%
1136.7%
1225.2%
13<1%
Game by game
2026 projected scores and probabilities
Expected scores and margins are model means, not exact-score guarantees.
Each matchup becomes a compact projection card on portrait phones.
| Game | Date | Opponent | Location | Projected score | Projected total | Projected margin | Win probability | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5, 2026 | Abilene Christian | Home | 43–8 | 51.0 | +34.9 | 99% | Medium |
| 2 | Sep 12, 2026 | Away | 37–11 | 48.4 | +25.9 | 96% | High | |
| 3 | Sep 18, 2026 | Home | 34–19 | 52.4 | +15.1 | 84% | High | |
| 4 | Sep 26, 2026 | Home | 47–5 | 52.3 | +42.0 | >99% | Medium | |
| 5 | Oct 3, 2026 | Away | 35–15 | 50.3 | +19.5 | 90% | Medium | |
| 6 | Oct 17, 2026 | Home | 34–15 | 49.5 | +18.6 | 89% | Medium | |
| 7 | Oct 24, 2026 | Away | 34–18 | 52.6 | +16.2 | 86% | High | |
| 8 | Oct 31, 2026 | Home | 33–19 | 51.4 | +14.0 | 82% | High | |
| 9 | Nov 7, 2026 | Home | 38–13 | 50.8 | +24.8 | 95% | Medium | |
| 10 | Nov 14, 2026 | Away | 32–20 | 52.3 | +12.1 | 79% | Medium | |
| 11 | Nov 21, 2026 | Away | 36–19 | 55.7 | +16.8 | 87% | High | |
| 12 | Nov 26, 2026 | Home | 34–18 | 51.7 | +15.3 | 85% | High |
Projection context
These projections reflect the current Rivals Rundown football inputs and are refreshed as the underlying information changes.
Model version 5. RPR, rankings, margins and probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.