MAC · Falcons · Bowling Green, OH
Bowling Green
Your complete Bowling Green season outlook.
Austin Novosad raises the quarterback ceiling, while only three returning starters and a rebuilt line of scrimmage create significant integration risk.
Home stadiumDoyt L. Perry StadiumRPR rank#115Projected-wins rank#94
Projected wins5.50Most likely: 5 wins · 80% range 4–7
Rundown Power Rating -12.9Neutral-field strength
RPR Rank #115National power position
Schedule Strength Rank#121Opponent difficulty
Projected-Wins Rank #94Strength plus schedule
Market total4.5
Adjusted Edge +0.66
Probability over74%
Market basis12 games
Team profile
RPR and model ratings
- Rundown Power Rating
- -12.9
- National RPR Rank
- #115
- Schedule strength rank
- #121
- Average opponent power
- -10.9
- Offense rating
- 15.0
- Defense rating
- 28.2
- Projected QB
- Austin Novosad
- QB starts
- 0
- QB confidence
- Low
- Head coach
- Eddie George
- Returning starters
- 3
- Portal rank
- 7
- Roster fragility
- 69.4
Record outcomes
Win distribution
0<1%
1<1%
21.8%
37.2%
416.7%
524.6%
624.0%
715.8%
87.0%
92.1%
10<1%
11<1%
12<1%
13<1%
Game by game
2026 projected scores and probabilities
Expected scores and margins are model means, not exact-score guarantees.
Each matchup becomes a compact projection card on portrait phones.
| Game | Date | Opponent | Location | Projected score | Projected total | Projected margin | Win probability | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5, 2026 | Tarleton State | Home | 22–25 | 47.0 | -2.1 | 44% | Low |
| 2 | Sep 12, 2026 | Away | 11–35 | 46.4 | -23.6 | 6% | High | |
| 3 | Sep 19, 2026 | Away | 14–29 | 43.5 | -14.7 | 16% | Low | |
| 4 | Sep 26, 2026 | Home | 21–29 | 50.4 | -8.1 | 29% | Low | |
| 5 | Oct 3, 2026 | Away | 14–27 | 41.8 | -12.9 | 19% | Medium | |
| 6 | Oct 10, 2026 | Home | 30–18 | 47.7 | +12.0 | 79% | Low | |
| 7 | Oct 17, 2026 | Home | 30–16 | 45.4 | +14.4 | 83% | Low | |
| 8 | Oct 24, 2026 | Away | 19–23 | 42.6 | -3.7 | 40% | Low | |
| 9 | Oct 31, 2026 | Away | 17–26 | 43.2 | -8.9 | 28% | Medium | |
| 10 | Nov 10, 2026 | Home | 28–19 | 46.8 | +9.3 | 73% | Medium | |
| 11 | Nov 18, 2026 | Away | 19–24 | 43.1 | -4.3 | 39% | Low | |
| 12 | Nov 28, 2026 | Home | 33–13 | 46.0 | +19.4 | 90% | Low |
Projection context
These projections reflect the current Rivals Rundown football inputs and are refreshed as the underlying information changes.
Model version 5. RPR, rankings, margins and probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.