Big Ten · Hawkeyes · Iowa City, IA
Iowa
Your complete Iowa season outlook.
The defense and program floor remain trustworthy, but an inexperienced projected quarterback and weak net portal signal limit offensive upside.
Home stadiumKinnick StadiumRPR rank#22Projected-wins rank#33
Projected wins7.81Most likely: 8 wins · 80% range 7–9
Rundown Power Rating +12.9Neutral-field strength
RPR Rank #22National power position
Schedule Strength Rank#39Opponent difficulty
Projected-Wins Rank #33Strength plus schedule
Market total7.5
Adjusted Edge +0.20
Probability over59%
Market basis12 games
Team profile
RPR and model ratings
- Rundown Power Rating
- +12.9
- National RPR Rank
- #22
- Schedule strength rank
- #39
- Average opponent power
- +5.0
- Offense rating
- 29.7
- Defense rating
- 17.4
- Projected QB
- Jeremy Hecklinski
- QB starts
- 0
- QB confidence
- Low-Medium
- Head coach
- Kirk Ferentz
- Returning starters
- 6
- Portal rank
- 17
- Roster fragility
- 52.5
Record outcomes
Win distribution
0<1%
1<1%
2<1%
3<1%
41.0%
54.4%
612.6%
722.7%
827.0%
920.5%
109.3%
112.2%
12<1%
13<1%
Game by game
2026 projected scores and probabilities
Expected scores and margins are model means, not exact-score guarantees.
Each matchup becomes a compact projection card on portrait phones.
| Game | Date | Opponent | Location | Projected score | Projected total | Projected margin | Win probability | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5, 2026 | Home | 39–6 | 45.5 | +33.0 | 99% | Low | |
| 2 | Sep 12, 2026 | Home | 31–15 | 45.6 | +16.2 | 86% | Medium | |
| 3 | Sep 19, 2026 | Northern Iowa | Home | 39–10 | 49.2 | +28.3 | 97% | Medium |
| 4 | Sep 26, 2026 | Away | 21–27 | 47.6 | -6.1 | 34% | Medium | |
| 5 | Oct 3, 2026 | Home | 16–32 | 48.0 | -16.9 | 13% | High | |
| 6 | Oct 9, 2026 | Away | 22–27 | 48.3 | -4.8 | 37% | Medium | |
| 7 | Oct 24, 2026 | Away | 25–20 | 45.3 | +4.5 | 62% | Medium | |
| 8 | Oct 31, 2026 | Home | 28–15 | 42.3 | +12.9 | 81% | Medium | |
| 9 | Nov 7, 2026 | Away | 25–20 | 45.3 | +5.6 | 64% | Medium | |
| 10 | Nov 14, 2026 | Home | 33–15 | 48.7 | +18.1 | 89% | Medium | |
| 11 | Nov 21, 2026 | Away | 26–25 | 50.6 | +1.0 | 53% | Low | |
| 12 | Nov 27, 2026 | Home | 28–21 | 48.6 | +6.7 | 67% | Medium |
Projection context
These projections reflect the current Rivals Rundown football inputs and are refreshed as the underlying information changes.
Model version 5. RPR, rankings, margins and probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.