MAC · RedHawks · Oxford, OH
Miami (OH)
Your complete Miami (OH) season outlook.
Chuck Martin, strong returning production and the MAC's top transfer ranking support another title run despite an unsettled quarterback competition.
Home stadiumYager StadiumRPR rank#80Projected-wins rank#15
Projected wins8.54Most likely: 9 wins · 80% range 7–10
Rundown Power Rating -2.1Neutral-field strength
RPR Rank #80National power position
Schedule Strength Rank#125Opponent difficulty
Projected-Wins Rank #15Strength plus schedule
Market total7.5
Adjusted Edge +1.21
Probability over77%
Market basis12 games
Team profile
RPR and model ratings
- Rundown Power Rating
- -2.1
- National RPR Rank
- #80
- Schedule strength rank
- #125
- Average opponent power
- -11.6
- Offense rating
- 19.8
- Defense rating
- 22.7
- Projected QB
- Thomas Gotkowski / Caleb Heavner
- QB starts
- 2
- QB confidence
- Low-Medium
- Head coach
- Chuck Martin
- Returning starters
- 9
- Portal rank
- 1
- Roster fragility
- 44.7
Record outcomes
Win distribution
0<1%
1<1%
2<1%
3<1%
4<1%
51.7%
65.9%
714.5%
824.5%
927.1%
1018.3%
116.6%
121.0%
13<1%
Game by game
2026 projected scores and probabilities
Expected scores and margins are model means, not exact-score guarantees.
Each matchup becomes a compact projection card on portrait phones.
| Game | Date | Opponent | Location | Projected score | Projected total | Projected margin | Win probability | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5, 2026 | Away | 18–29 | 47.8 | -11.0 | 23% | High | |
| 2 | Sep 12, 2026 | Holy Cross | Home | 31–15 | 46.6 | +15.7 | 85% | Medium |
| 3 | Sep 19, 2026 | Away | 20–28 | 48.2 | -8.0 | 30% | Medium | |
| 4 | Sep 26, 2026 | Home | 29–18 | 47.0 | +11.1 | 77% | Low | |
| 5 | Oct 3, 2026 | Home | 27–14 | 41.8 | +12.9 | 81% | Medium | |
| 6 | Oct 10, 2026 | Away | 36–10 | 45.5 | +25.9 | 96% | Medium | |
| 7 | Oct 17, 2026 | Home | 31–12 | 42.9 | +19.0 | 90% | High | |
| 8 | Oct 24, 2026 | Away | 26–18 | 43.9 | +7.6 | 69% | Medium | |
| 9 | Nov 3, 2026 | Home | 27–15 | 42.2 | +11.6 | 78% | Medium | |
| 10 | Nov 10, 2026 | Home | 26–13 | 39.8 | +13.0 | 81% | Medium | |
| 11 | Nov 17, 2026 | Away | 31–15 | 46.4 | +15.7 | 85% | High | |
| 12 | Nov 24, 2026 | Away | 22–20 | 42.8 | +1.8 | 55% | Low |
Projection context
These projections reflect the current Rivals Rundown football inputs and are refreshed as the underlying information changes.
Model version 5. RPR, rankings, margins and probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.