MAC · Bulls · Buffalo, NY
Buffalo
Your complete Buffalo season outlook.
A strong transfer class and four returning defensive starters provide a credible rebound path; first-time quarterback play remains the largest uncertainty.
Home stadiumUB StadiumRPR rank#110Projected-wins rank#69
Projected wins6.40Most likely: 6 wins · 80% range 5–8
Rundown Power Rating -11.5Neutral-field strength
RPR Rank #110National power position
Schedule Strength Rank#128Opponent difficulty
Projected-Wins Rank #69Strength plus schedule
Market total5.5
Adjusted Edge +0.50
Probability over71%
Market basis12 games
Team profile
RPR and model ratings
- Rundown Power Rating
- -11.5
- National RPR Rank
- #110
- Schedule strength rank
- #128
- Average opponent power
- -12.2
- Offense rating
- 15.9
- Defense rating
- 28.0
- Projected QB
- Jason Wright
- QB starts
- 0
- QB confidence
- Low
- Head coach
- Pete Lembo
- Returning starters
- 6
- Portal rank
- 6
- Roster fragility
- 64.3
Record outcomes
Win distribution
0<1%
1<1%
20.6%
33.0%
48.5%
516.6%
623.1%
722.9%
815.7%
97.2%
102.0%
11<1%
12<1%
13<1%
Game by game
2026 projected scores and probabilities
Expected scores and margins are model means, not exact-score guarantees.
Each matchup becomes a compact projection card on portrait phones.
| Game | Date | Opponent | Location | Projected score | Projected total | Projected margin | Win probability | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 3, 2026 | Albany | Home | 25–22 | 47.4 | +3.3 | 59% | Low |
| 2 | Sep 12, 2026 | Away | 25–26 | 49.9 | -0.2 | 49% | Low | |
| 3 | Sep 19, 2026 | Away | 9–39 | 47.7 | -29.9 | 2% | Medium | |
| 4 | Sep 26, 2026 | Robert Morris | Home | 28–19 | 47.4 | +9.1 | 73% | Low |
| 5 | Oct 3, 2026 | Home | 20–23 | 43.6 | -2.6 | 43% | Low | |
| 6 | Oct 10, 2026 | Away | 20–23 | 43.5 | -2.9 | 42% | Low | |
| 7 | Oct 17, 2026 | Home | 34–13 | 46.3 | +21.0 | 92% | Medium | |
| 8 | Oct 24, 2026 | Home | 23–19 | 42.6 | +3.7 | 60% | Low | |
| 9 | Nov 3, 2026 | Away | 15–27 | 42.2 | -11.6 | 22% | Medium | |
| 10 | Nov 11, 2026 | Away | 28–17 | 45.8 | +10.9 | 77% | Medium | |
| 11 | Nov 18, 2026 | Home | 24–21 | 44.7 | +2.8 | 57% | Low | |
| 12 | Nov 27, 2026 | Away | 24–19 | 43.7 | +5.1 | 63% | Medium |
Projection context
These projections reflect the current Rivals Rundown football inputs and are refreshed as the underlying information changes.
Model version 5. RPR, rankings, margins and probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.