Sun Belt · Mountaineers · Boone, NC
Appalachian State
Your complete Appalachian State season outlook.
A near-total roster reset and an unproven quarterback lower the floor, although Dowell Loggains and a large portal class create rebound upside.
Home stadiumKidd Brewer StadiumRPR rank#114Projected-wins rank#89
Projected wins5.71Most likely: 6 wins · 80% range 4–7
Rundown Power Rating -12.3Neutral-field strength
RPR Rank #114National power position
Schedule Strength Rank#124Opponent difficulty
Projected-Wins Rank #89Strength plus schedule
Market total5.5
Adjusted Edge -0.17
Probability over55%
Market basis12 games
Team profile
RPR and model ratings
- Rundown Power Rating
- -12.3
- National RPR Rank
- #114
- Schedule strength rank
- #124
- Average opponent power
- -11.5
- Offense rating
- 21.0
- Defense rating
- 33.6
- Projected QB
- Malachi Singleton
- QB starts
- 0
- QB confidence
- Low-Medium
- Head coach
- Dowell Loggains
- Returning starters
- 4
- Portal rank
- 2
- Roster fragility
- 72.0
Record outcomes
Win distribution
0<1%
1<1%
21.5%
36.1%
414.8%
522.8%
624.0%
717.6%
89.0%
93.2%
100.7%
11<1%
12<1%
13<1%
Game by game
2026 projected scores and probabilities
Expected scores and margins are model means, not exact-score guarantees.
Each matchup becomes a compact projection card on portrait phones.
| Game | Date | Opponent | Location | Projected score | Projected total | Projected margin | Win probability | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5, 2026 | Maine | Home | 28–26 | 53.4 | +2.3 | 56% | Low |
| 2 | Sep 12, 2026 | Away | 20–32 | 52.3 | -12.4 | 20% | Low | |
| 3 | Sep 19, 2026 | Home | 38–16 | 53.8 | +22.1 | 93% | Low | |
| 4 | Sep 26, 2026 | Away | 18–38 | 55.8 | -19.5 | 10% | Medium | |
| 5 | Oct 10, 2026 | Home | 23–27 | 49.7 | -4.0 | 40% | Low | |
| 6 | Oct 16, 2026 | Away | 27–28 | 55.3 | -0.6 | 49% | Low | |
| 7 | Oct 22, 2026 | Home | 23–31 | 53.3 | -8.1 | 29% | Low | |
| 8 | Oct 31, 2026 | Away | 25–31 | 55.3 | -6.1 | 34% | Medium | |
| 9 | Nov 7, 2026 | Home | 36–21 | 57.2 | +14.8 | 84% | Low | |
| 10 | Nov 14, 2026 | Away | 26–35 | 60.4 | -9.1 | 27% | Medium | |
| 11 | Nov 21, 2026 | Home | 34–20 | 53.6 | +14.2 | 83% | Low | |
| 12 | Nov 27, 2026 | Away | 28–29 | 57.0 | -1.6 | 46% | Low |
Projection context
These projections reflect the current Rivals Rundown football inputs and are refreshed as the underlying information changes.
Model version 5. RPR, rankings, margins and probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.